Tony Shaffer, the current president of the London Center for Policy Research, and a former intelligence operation officer who has spent 35 years working in global and national security, all but confirmed Jack Posobiec’s suspicions that “the Kremlin is up to something,” telling the Human Events senior editor that he believes Russia is planning on a “return to the offensive by October 1.”
After Posobiec posed that Russia may be in the midst of preparations to carry out some type of plan, Shaffer highlighted that Putin recently visited “the front and got a briefing on something.” He explained that this may signal that Russia is “getting ready to go back on the offensive.”
“Anytime a senior leader shows up somewhere in the military, something's about to happen. So I think it's very clear that something's about to roll.”
Shaffer then pivoted to discuss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the well-known head of Russia’s Wagner Group, who was reported dead last week after a jet was downed in Russia.
“Regarding Prigozhin … one of [his] mistakes was trusting Putin. So I think it's self-evident that … basically, Putin was not going to let some knucklehead like Prigozhin, who was a thug, they're both thugs but one thug’s not going to let another get up on him,” Shaffer began.
“Wagner is very popular. Prigozhin came out of the coup attempt or revolt whatever you want to call it, very popular … it was just a matter of time before Putin did him in. Yeah, I do believe Prigozhin’s dead, and I do believe it was done two months to the day from the uprising or whatever you want to call it [to send a message] ... Putin did it … you can take the man out of the Soviet Union you can't take the Soviet Union out of the man … and I think Putin’s still very much a Soviet at heart.”
Posobiec then asked if Russia is preparing for a big move, to which Shaffer answered: “I think that is what the Putin visit to the front means Jack. The question is when?”
Shaffer continued: “[D]o the Russians just simply accept partition? Do they just take … the regions they have and say we're done? Or do they do more to disable Ukraine to make it more vulnerable? That's the question. I don't know what the answer is … But the Russians do have the potential based on their current numbers…”
He then stated that based on his professional opinion, he believes “the Russians are going to be in the position to return to the offensive by October 1.”
The pair then discussed whether or not Russia has any incentive to negotiate at this point regarding the conflict with Ukraine. Shaffer noted that while he is “not pro-Russian,” it is clear there is “a complete detachment between the diplomatic corps and the military advisors on the Ukrainian side, from the reality they face regarding Russia.”
The two ultimately concurred that these unresolved conflicts ultimately end up harming "good Ukranian families" and "civilians."
