President Donald Trump wasn’t entirely clear in his Wednesday night address to the American people about where the war in Iran is going, but he didn't mention a ground invasion, which had been rumored to be part of his announcement. What is clear is that he should proclaim victory in Iran, even as he said that the stated objectives are close to being met.
The lack of news about a what would be a catastrophic ground war that could grind the president and his administration into dust the way that Vietnam destroyed President Lyndon Johnson between 1965 and 1968 was welcome. If ground troops become part of the equation and Marines and soldiers are committed to an invasion of Iran or Kharg island, the victory Trump seeks will be even further away. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump told European nations to go deal with it themselves if they want the oil so badly, or to buy from the US.
Trump didn’t directly address those millions of MAGA supporters who form his base, many of whom are either disbelieving or furious that Trump decided to invade Iran and may continue to walk deeper into the quicksand. Trump delivered the speech in a hoarse monotone that was bereft of any emotion. He seemed at times to be reciting the words as opposed to his usual weave, and the speech only lasted about 20 minutes.
I think there were two components to Trump’s speech: what the warmongers wanted to hear and what he needed to say quietly to the MAGA folks who want an end to this war but don’t want to sacrifice America’s honor and integrity in the process. Trump was clearly playing both sides of the street – war and diplomacy – as he consistently does. The relative brevity of Trump’s remarks—as contrasted to his State of the Union address which was the longest in history—tells you that this was not an exercise of joy but of duty.
Trump doesn’t really want to bring Iran “back to the Stone Ages where they belong,” nor does he want to destroy the civilian “electric generating plants” in the country. He didn’t even mention destroying the desalination plants that would almost certainly create a massive humanitarian crisis as most countries in the Persian Gulf are dependent upon them for drinking water. Instead, he wants a clean victory for America, a removal of American interference, and for the nation to no longer be a threat to the US, the region, or the world.
Many thought Trump would use the address to announce America’s departure from NATO – something he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have been broadly hinting at. NATO has passed its best before date and Trump is quite correct to state the alliance does absolutely nothing for American interests. That may wait until Operation Epic Fury has come to a conclusion.
Trump didn’t announce anything new in the speech either which echoed his sentiments on Truth Social as well as the administration’s talking points. This speech was merely a placeholder. Trump’s intention was to describe America’s military progress and dangle the possibility of a diplomatic solution.
He did not once mention a ground war; did not reference the deployment of US Marines or the 82nd Airborne Regiment to the Middle East. That’s because, arguably, he has no intention of actually sending them into conflict but is using the threat of their force as diplomacy by other means. It is a lot less expensive, in terms of men and materiel, to deploy troops to the Middle East and then send them home than it is to send them to their deaths.
This speech was a preparation for Trump declaring victory, announcing the cessation of US operations against Iran and inviting Israel to conduct a ground offensive if it wants one so badly.
Trump knows the extent of the anxiety and fury in the MAGA camp. He sees the price of gas spiraling and he knows how just about everything is dependent upon the availability of oil. He knows a prolonged war with the attendant economic collapse it threatens will crush Republican opportunities in the midterm elections and result in the loss of GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
Trump is nobody’s fool and he fully understands political consequences. He is old enough to remember how Lyndon Johnson went from winning the largest percentage of the popular vote in the 1964 presidential election to being unable to run again in 1968 because of the “credibility gap” and his massive unpopularity.
But Trump can legitimately claim victory in this war and he came very close to saying that Wednesday night.
“So I've made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly, we are going to hit them extremely hard.
And then, the quiet promise to the MAGA faithful.
“And I'll tell you, the world is watching, and when we do, when it's all over, the United States will be safer, stronger, more prosperous and greater than it has ever been before. May God bless the men and women of the United States Armed Forces and may God bless the United States of America.”
The end is nigh. Not the end of the world but the end of the war.
