With the surprise appointment of Rep. John McHugh (R.-NY) to be secretary of the army Tuesday, the immediate question on the minds of New York State Republicans was: “Will we be down to two congressmen here instead of three?”
After two devastating election cycles in the Empire State, the ranks of its GOP House delegation has dropped to three House Members out of 29. Earlier this year, Republican hopes of recapturing the 20th District House seat of Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand were dashed, as Republican Jim Tedisco lost the first special U.S. House election of the Obama Administration to Democrat Scott Murphy.
With McHugh resigning the seat he has held with ease since 1992, the upstate-based, historically Republican 23rd District will be in play and a special election will be held sometime this year. On paper, the 23rd is Republican: GOPers have a 47,000 edge in voter registration over Democrats. But this was the same case in the 20th District and, as it was there, Barack Obama captured the 23rd (52% to 47%) in ’08.
In addition, Democrats won the last special election for state senate right within this district when Republican incumbent Jim Wright resigned to take a high-paying private sector job. The winner of that special election, State Sen. Darrell Aubertine, is now the most oft-mentioned candidate for the upcoming special election to succeed McHugh. Also mentioned is another Democratic state senator from the 23rd, David Valesky.
One former Republican state legislator told me that his party is in stronger shape here than it was in the race Gillibrand seat “because the media market is very inexpensive.” Perhaps, but with Democrats still leading Republicans in fund-raising at the state and national level, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the Democratic nominee will have all the money he or she needs.
The name on most Republican lips at this point is that of Robert Traub, McHugh’s chief of staff and a centrist Republican like his boss (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 74%). Another GOPer mentioned is businessman Matt Doheny, a Cornell Law School graduate. Easily the most controversial prospect is State Assemblywoman Diedre Scozzasava, whose mood to the left on cultural issues has infuriated many conservative activists.
“She might have trouble getting the Conservative Party line,” retired New York City detective Jim Kelly, an activist in the New York State Conservative Party and resident of Wilmington (in the 23rd) told me. Since the 1960’s, getting extra votes on the Conservative Party ballot line has been critical to the election of Republicans in New York State.
Based on history and numbers, Republicans have a good chance of retaining the 23rd District. But based on recent history in congressional races and the condition of Republicanism in New York, it may be a case of after McHugh, down to two.
