The past few days in California have seen Gov. Schwarzenegger declare for reelection, endorse Proposition 75 (the “Paycheck Protection” initiative that makes government unions ask for permission before collecting political money from members), and announce that he will spend a few million dollars of his own wealth to boost his reform measures on the November 8 special election ballot.
This burst of activity presages the close of an unprecedented fourth year of political warfare in California. First there was the 2002 election which resulted in not one Republican winning statewide office. Then the Democrats overreached, and when former Gov. Gray Davis bungled the electric crisis, tripled the car tax, and signed legislation giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, he was recalled on October 7, 2003 with 55.4 percent of voters deciding to oust a governor once touted as Presidential material. In 2004 Gov. Schwarzenegger fought the Democrats to a draw with none of the 153 congressional and legislative seats up for election changing partisan hands. This year opened with the governor calling for budget, pension, teacher tenure, and redistricting reforms, only to see the majority Democrats in the Legislature go back on the offensive, backed by tens of millions of dollars of union attack ads.
Today Gov. Schwarzenegger’s political viability comes down to seven weeks of tooth-and-tong fighting over California’s direction for the next two decades. Despite approval ratings in the mid-30s, Schwarzenegger remains a potent force with several factors weighing in his favor.
Foremost among his assets is his ability to focus the public on issues of his choosing. Last year’s initiative to undo California’s “three strikes” law is a case in point. The soft-on-crime liberal initiative was seen as easily passing, then, at the latest possible moment, the Governor appeared in television ads opposing the initiative and it sank like a rock, losing with the support of only 47.3 percent of the voters.
Gov. Schwarzenegger counts another powerful weapon in his arsenal: his ability to raise funds. On the money front, the Governor announced his intent to invest several million dollars of his own wealth into bolstering passage of his budget, teacher tenure, and redistricting reform initiatives. Whether this also includes supporting the most heated measure on the ballot, Proposition 75, remains to be seen. Regardless, the infusion of earnest money from a Governor backing his own initiatives is sure to open up the wallets of worried or wavering supporters.
Lastly, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s opponents should be counted as an asset too. The Democrat-controlled Legislature’s approval rating stands about 10 points lower than the Governor’s – and for good reason. Rather than rise to the challenge of reform issued by the Governor in his State-of-the-State address last January, Democrats instead sent him bills on homosexual marriage and drivers licenses for people who violate Federal immigration law. In a state struggling with debt, overly powerful public sector employee unions, and an educational system needing serious reforms, the Legislature remains out of touch, beholden to its liberal paymasters.
Some observers predict disaster for the Governor on November 8, citing polls showing most of his reforms going down to defeat and a sour public mood towards the special election. What these pundits don’t mention, however, is the very difficult position the Governor’s opponents have created for themselves. For months, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s enemies pursued a strategy designed to stop the special election, hammering on the Governor with tens of millions of dollars of ads in an attempt to get him to call off the election and make a deal to cut his losses. This effort failed. Rather, what it has done is make the very people the Governor’s opponents need to go to the polls to vote “no” likely instead to stay home – after all, why vote in an election you have been repeatedly told is a waste of time and money? (To which Gov. Schwarzenegger responds, “It would be a waste of democracy not to hold the special election.”)
Sensing doom on the horizon, the 330,000-strong CTA union mortgaged their Bay area headquarters, using it as a huge ATM to get $50 million to spend bashing the governor and the Paycheck Protection initiative. To pay off the mortgage, they hiked dues $60 a year through 2008 – even, apparently, on those teachers who have opted out of the union but who are required by law to pay fees for collective bargaining services. Imagine that, union bosses forcing non-members to pay for their political campaign against Proposition 75 so they can continue to make all their members underwrite the election of liberals!
This sort of heavy-handed hubris from government unions will only aid Gov. Schwarzenegger’s special election victory – a victory that will give the Governor a much-needed boost in his bid to win reelection in 2006, the final and fifth year of the non-stop political struggle to reform and realign the Golden State.
