Senate 2006
The picture continues to brighten for Democrats and dim for Republicans in terms of both candidate recruitment and fund raising. Once-high hopes for expanding the Republican Senate majority have given way to apprehension about losing two to four seats next year.
1) It becomes increasingly clear that Republican candidates nationwide will be running away from President Bush as his administration becomes increasingly unpopular. In Minnesota, for example, Rep. Mark Kennedy (R.), a Senate candidate, is doing everything he can to highlight the times he has voted and spoken out on issues that put him opposite Bush. This is also happening in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Rick Santorum (R.) is sparring with his opponent over who has been more critical of Bush’s handling of the Iraq War. In contrast to 2002 and 2004, when Bush played a key part in GOP Senate victories, he is now becoming a liability.
2) Despite their fears early on that they would face a messy election season with multiple primaries, Democrats have largely cleared the field of party challengers. There are exceptions—open-seat races in Maryland and Minnesota, and the challenge for a Republican seat in Montana—but Democratic incumbents are at least free of trouble. Meanwhile, Democrats take delight in Republicans’ failure to prevent primaries. Potentially vulnerable Senators Lincoln Chafee (R.-R.I.) and Mike DeWine (R.-Ohio) both face primary challenges—Chafee a strong one and DeWine a weaker one. Even if they end up being mere nuisances, the right-leaning primary challengers in both states could hurt the re-election prospects of one or both senators. Republicans may also have messy, competitive primaries on their hands in the open-seat races in Tennessee, Nebraska, New Jersey and Vermont.
3) Democrats are expanding their list of targets with the entry of a top candidate into Missouri’s Senate race, and the likely entry this week of a wealthy second-tier candidate into Arizona’s race. Republicans, in contrast, watch their target list contract as pick-up opportunities in Michigan, Florida and New Mexico have already diminished. Some fear the same may happen soon in West Virginia and North Dakota—both Red States where the GOP has just one strong candidate who can run and win. All of the GOP’s eggs are in these two baskets right now. Recruiting successes in these two states may be the only chance the GOP has to stave off a disastrous 2006.
4) In the last two months, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has begun out-raising the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). It also ended July with a huge cash-on-hand advantage—a very bad sign for the GOP. The NRSC has spent much more this cycle than its counterpart—an incredible $15.4 million, compared to the Democrats’ $9.4 million. Democrats hope this sum reflects an inflated operation with too many consultants on retainer, but fear the money could move toward identifying Republican voters and building up top-notch voter lists as Republicans did successfully in 2004.
5) In August, as Republicans continued to suffer setbacks in recruitment—the most recent in Michigan—the NRSC sent researchers to work on a detailed opposition research piece on Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D.-N.Y.) ideological aberrations. This obvious waste of time could be a sign of serious operational problems. Although the utter failure in fund raising and recruitment cannot be solely blamed on the NRSC’s chairwoman, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R.-N.C.), and her staff, Republican doubts are escalating about the NRSC and its current leadership.
