Governor 2005
New Jersey: Now it appears that Sen. Jon Corzine (D.) may not be the squeaky-clean Democrat some believed he was. His sexual affair (he is divorced) with a major public sector labor union boss—and his huge payment to her of nearly half a million dollars—are indisputably shady, evoking recent memories of corruption in the administration of former Democrat Gov. James McGreevey. Still, millionaire Doug Forrester (R.) continues to trail, treading water in the polls below 40%. The media have made a much bigger deal of Forrester’s possible technical campaign finance violations than they have over Corzine’s potentially huge scandal.
Perhaps in another state or at another time, Corzine would have to drop his candidacy. But not in New Jersey. If Forrester could not even win the 2002 Senate race after corruption drove Sen. Bob Torricelli (D.) off the ballot, how will he defeat even a compromised Corzine? This race is leaning Democratic retention.
Virginia: Despite his early floundering, former Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore (R.) has finally found what his campaign needed most: an issue that resonates with voters in Northern Virginia. In contrast to his opponent, Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D.), Kilgore denounced the city of Herndon’s attempt to build a day laborer center for illegal aliens with taxpayer money. Local radio hosts have hammered the issue, providing as much free airtime as Kilgore could possibly need to get it out.
After two separate votes by local government bodies, the day laborer center’s construction was approved August 17. But it will probably be held up by litigation involving the Loudon County government, which owns part of the construction site. Loudon’s commissioners oppose the laborer site. The issue will drag out, hurting Kaine well into October at least. Also, another local community, where such a proposed center was previously blocked by outraged residents, may now try to resurrect the proposal.
The debate over illegal aliens comes even as the Salvadoran gang MS-13 has made its presence more noticeable in Northern Virginia, with recent stabbings in nearby Maryland making the Washington-area news and MS-13 graffiti appearing in suburban neighborhoods.
This could not come at a worse time for Kaine, whose campaign is showing its first real signs of weakness. Kilgore, meanwhile, is hitting his stride, pressing flesh, traveling the state and discussing gang violence and immigration. The state is naturally Republican, and it looks more and more like it may return home this November. This race is leaning Republican takeover.
Governor 2006
Kansas: The decision by Rep. Jerry Moran (R.) not to run for governor gives Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D.) a free second term. Rep. Jim Ryun (R.), feeling the heat from Democrats and performing poorly in fund raising anyway, will not run for governor. This has serious and negative implications for Sen. Sam Brownback’s (R.) 2008 presidential hopes. At the very least, he will be forced to give up his seat to a Democrat if he is nominated by his party.
Moran, meanwhile, has deeply upset the Kansas GOP for a second time in four years. The first time came during the last gerrymander after the 2000 census. Although he was already winning re-election with more than 90% of the vote in his district, Moran’s refusal to take in more Democratic territory in eastern Kansas is what has allowed Rep. Dennis Moore (D.) to survive in his Kansas City district.
