Legislative Agenda: The Republicans’ much-vaunted victories in Congress may prove to be Pyrrhic, and their future legislative plans could be even more perilous than those already achieved. Republicans are in danger of alienating their conservative base and confirming in others’ minds the fears that Democrats hope to instill in workers, minorities and the elderly.
1) The transportation bill that passed the House is an ocean of congressional pork. It contains thousands of earmarked projects and busts the President’s original 2004 budget limits by nearly $40 billion. Far from being a genuine infrastructure bill, it includes extensive funding for zoos, museums, parking lots, bike paths, horse trails and roadside lawn management. Congressional aides insist that these projects will buy popularity for endangered incumbents and help the GOP cause. But at the same time, Democrats continue to attack President Bush and the congressional majority over the size of the federal budget deficit.
2) Democrats are correct in their criticism that the new energy bill does nothing to reduce gas prices. Although it would be ridiculous to expect immediate change, one would not expect the bill to contain enormous ethanol and oxygenate mandates—plus a new program to make ethanol from sugar cane—that will push gas prices higher. The bill also fails to address the issue of MTBE liability reform, and it contains massive subsidies both for oil companies and for the users of unsustainable energy production methods.
3) The fact that Bush and House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.) are now openly discussing immigration reform should put fear into the hearts of Republicans in terms of their electoral prospects. Bush’s proposed amnesty program definitely has the votes to pass Congress, but nothing is surer to provoke fury on the right than its passage. The guest worker amnesty program angers many Americans because it would allow illegal immigrants in the U.S. to stay under a new legal cover either as a guest worker or a resident.
4) The narrow passage of CAFTA, although a major economic and foreign policy victory for Bush, feeds the same fear latent in the immigration debate—that free-market economic policies are giving American jobs to foreigners. Such fears were overblown in the public debate.
Particularly in danger for their CAFTA votes are two North Carolina Republicans—Rep. Robin Hayes, who voted “yes,” and Rep. Charles Taylor, who was not recorded as voting. Hayes, who represents a protectionist constituency with several textile mills, voted “yes” under pressure from the Republican leadership after promising to vote “no.” Inexplicably, the leadership allowed at least one totally safe incumbent, Armed Services Chairman Duncan Hunter (R.-Calif.), to vote “no” and keep his plum position, even as they forced Hayes to risk his seat with the vote.
Taylor, who suffered some ethical problems last cycle, gave the highly implausible excuse that his vote failed to be recorded because of a computer glitch. Taylor had promised to vote “no,” and the bill passed in the early morning of July 28 by a vote of 217 to 215.
One other avowed Republican opponent of the bill, Rep. Jo Ann Davis (Va.), claimed that thunderstorms had prevented her from returning from an event in her district for the vote—even though she took votes earlier that evening, around dinner time. Although Davis’s district is probably too strongly Republican for her to lose, Taylor’s is more marginal, and he stands to face a strong opponent this year. The “yes” vote by Rep. Mark Kennedy (R.-Minn.) has upset Minnesota’s sugar beet growers and will hurt his chances as he runs a difficult race for the open seat of retiring Sen. Mark Dayton (D.).
