Outlook: A review of what’s happening in the Nation’s Capital.
1) Going into the August recess and the real dog days of summer, Republican strategists are delighted that the Supreme Court nomination of John Roberts chased the CIA leak case out of the major news slots on TV and the newspapers (see below).
2) Republicans spent the days before the month-long recess trying to secure passage of CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement) in the House. It narrowly passed, 217 to 215, after GOP leaders held the vote open into the early morning hours of July 28.
3) House Republican advocates of Social Security reform are not happy that the party leadership has postponed floor action until September at the earliest in order to concentrate all efforts in July on passing CAFTA. It will be a close call on the new plan to provide personal accounts through the Social Security surplus, with some Republican House members unwilling to cast a politically risky vote for a measure given little or no chance to pass the Senate.
4) The long-expected bolt of the Teamsters and SEIU from the AFL-CIO is a short-term political setback for the Democrats because less money will be available from unions for the 2006 elections. The entire purpose of the move is to chastise AFL-CIO President John Sweeney for spending too much money on politics and not enough on organizing. But don’t expect the new coalition to move toward the Republicans. SEIU’s Andrew Stern and Teamsters’ James P. Hoffa are tried-and-true Democrats.
5) We detect some uneasiness in liberal ranks about the unimpeded march of Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) to the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. There has yet to emerge a non-Hillary consensus candidate. Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) have most of the support around the country, but influential liberals feel more comfortable with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. They see his Hispanic background as a major general election asset.
CIA Leak Case: Because of Robert Novak’s involvement with the case and restrictions on what he can say, we are limited in reporting details. But we can present the broad political picture.
1) The case had subsided as political fuel for Democrats until Time executives gave reporter Matt Cooper’s e-mails to the grand jury and for the first time incriminated Bush political adviser Karl Rove as a secondary source. When Rove’s attorney responded with major leaks of his client’s grand jury testimony in an effort to protect him, Democrats were off and running.
2) Nevertheless, special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald runs a leak-free operation, and the supply of new information is so meager that the story has been buried by the major news media in favor of the Supreme Court nomination. However, it continues nearly unabated on the blogs, talk radio, and to a lesser extent on cable television.
3) The general feeling by Republicans is that the White House has handled this case very badly, though it has not risen to the level of a major political threat. The President is strictly in non-political prosecutor Fitzgerald’s hands as to the pace and nature of what develops.
4) After an investigation of this length, at least one indictment is expected. The damage inflicted on the Bush Administration will depend on who is indicted. The White House has told supporters it is sure Rove will not be indicted.
