House 2006: As in the Senate, the Republicans’ House picture continues to deteriorate in the early months of this campaign cycle. Two things are saving them: their political opponents’ ineptitude and the highly superior fund raising of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) over its Democratic counterpart. The NRCC has raised $32 million to the DCCC’s $17.5 million.
At this point, Republicans should be concerned about surveys showing how poorly Americans view the current direction of the country. More importantly, everywhere one looks—including Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Colorado—there are GOP seats that appear vulnerable for next year’s race. And relatively few Democratic seats look ripe for the taking.
The GOP benefits, however, from Democrats’ blinding and visceral hatred of President Bush, which has apparently prevented them from presenting any positive message or agenda—for now. Democrats—including DNC Chairman Howard Dean, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.)—continue to make embarrassing, shrill and hyperbolic comments that will never win over the public.
Indiana-8: Rep. John Hostettler (R.) has been successful by at least one measure, long holding onto what was once known in Indiana as “the bloody eighth” for its historical propensity to oust its incumbents after a single term.
1) A solid conservative, Hostettler is also something of a maverick. His vote against the Iraq War and his devil-may-care attitude toward the House leadership have earned him this reputation. He was almost censured on the House floor recently for comments he made about Democrats’ hostility to religion.
2) In Washington, Hostettler is perhaps better known for behavior outside of his official role in Congress. In every cycle, he seems to do something that makes his re-election harder than it should be, although he always pulls it off in the end.
3) Hostettler always invites a strong challenge by paying virtually no attention at all to fund raising. His second-quarter fund-raising reports show that he has less than $1,000 cash on hand and has raised just $23,000 so far this year, including $12,000 of his own money.
4) “Hoss,” who in 2004 won re-election with 53%, may face his toughest opponent yet this cycle if popular Vandenburgh County (Evansville) Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D.) runs against him. This race will be competitive.
Indiana-9: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R.) won in 2004 by narrowly beating incumbent Rep. Baron Hill (D.). He will likely face a rematch next year, as Hill has already begun raising money. Sodrel’s campaign went more than $1 million into debt in his successful run last year, but he has been far more diligent in raising money than has Hostettler. This will also be a very hot and closely watched race.
Nebraska-3: As Rep. Tom Osborne (R.) prepares a run for governor, a crowded field is forming to replace him in this enormous, heavily Republican district, which takes up the 69 counties in the western four-fifths of Nebraska.
1) The winner of the primary in this district will probably be around for a very long time. The two top-tier GOP candidates are former Osborne aide John Hanson (who deferred his own 2000 run in favor of Osborne) and conservative state Sen. Adrian Smith.
2) Hanson has the tacit backing of Osborne, which goes a very long way in Nebraska. Smith, who represents a district in the state’s western panhandle, has a reputation for fiscal conservatism and fought vigorously against state-run gambling in Nebraska. Smith will be the favorite of Washington’s conservative groups. A head-to-head between the two would be a very close race.
