California 2005
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has called for a Nov. 8 special election in which a handful of ballot issues will appear, as well as one congressional seat that will probably be vacated soon (see below). We take a look at the November ballot measures he is pushing to reform state government, plus one other initiative that will appear.
Budget Caps: California's old Gann spending limits were overridden in 1988 by Proposition 98, which mandated that an ever-growing portion of the budget be used for education, and later by Proposition 111, which increased spending on transportation. This new proposition, the so-called "Live Within Our Means Act," would impose a spending limit based on a three-year rolling average of past state revenues. In the event of a budget impasse, the governor would be empowered to hold the line on spending by either selectively cutting from certain programs or cutting across the board. This is similar to Minnesota's budget law.
The early numbers look very good for passage. Public employees' unions probably won't be able to stop this train, especially given the money they'll have to spend to block the paycheck protection ballot proposition (see below). Likely Pass.
Paycheck Protection: This initiative would require annual written consent from state and local government employees before unions can take dues directly from their paychecks. The effect could be crippling for public sector unions and their political influence in California. The initiative's early polling numbers are strong.
It is smart strategy for Schwarzenegger to put this on the ballot because labor unions will be forced to spend tens of millions of dollars to block it, and they might fail anyway. If it passes, the measure will dramatically reduce the money in union coffers that can be used for political causes. Leaning Pass.
Teacher Tenure: Schwarzenegger wants to reform California's education system by delaying lifetime tenure for new teachers. Teachers' unions will fight hard against this one, but its rationale and ballot language will resonate especially for parents with school-age children. The early poll numbers are good but not high enough to guarantee passage in November. Leaning Pass.
Non-Partisan Redistricting: This proposition establishes an independent panel of retired judges to draw state legislative and congressional districts. This will break the heavy gerrymander that has made California congressional races so uncompetitive for the last five years - although the most likely outcome is that more Republicans will be elected. It could also reverse the state legislature's trend toward radicalism. This one polls very well. Likely Pass.
Parental Notification: Unlike those listed above, this proposition is not part of Schwarzenegger's reform agenda. Its presence on the ballot during the governor's "reform election" comes as a coincidence, as pro-life groups had been working to put it on the ballot for whatever election comes next. The initiative requires notification of parents of a minor girl who seeks an abortion. Although polls show it narrowly in the lead, the numbers are well below the threshold that past experience suggests a ballot initiative requires in order to pass. Leaning Fail.
House 2005
California-48: President Bush nominated Rep. Chris Cox (R), an Orange County conservative, last month to head the Securities and Exchange Commission. Although Cox will not likely resign his House seat until the Senate confirms him, potential candidates are already lining up for the jungle primary to replace him. This election will be held on the date of the California special election this year. All candidates will be on the ballot, with 50 percent needed to win outright. If no one gets 50 percent, the top vote-getter from each party will enter a runoff.
1) As soon as Cox's nomination was announced, California Senate Minority Leader Richard Ackerman (R) jumped into the race, captured endorsements of numerous local and Southern California party leaders, and raised more than $100,000 within 48 hours. Then, inexplicably, he jumped out again.
2) Conservative state Sen. John Campbell (R) had first endorsed Ackerman, but he withdrew that endorsement and then announced his own candidacy. A favorite of Washington conservatives with a proven winning record, he is the immediate frontrunner.
3) Despite attempts by a conservative group to arouse his interest through a "draft" movement, former Rep. and Patent and Trademark Office Director James Rogan (R) says he will not be running in this race. Rogan, who was defeated in a neighboring district by Rep. Adam Schiff (D) in 2000, earned conservative acclaim as a House manager in President Bill Clinton's impeachment trial in 1999. Many Republicans believe that he still has a successful political career ahead of him, but he does not seem to share their view, at least for now.
4) Other GOP hopefuls include two moderates: Mark Chapin Johnson, a wealthy Anaheim Hills businessman, and former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer. Brewer or Johnson could benefit if too many conservatives end up on the primary ballot, but with the exit of both Rogan and Ackerman, that is unlikely.
5) Also-may-runs include former state Sen. John Lewis and Republican Assemblymen Todd Spitzer and Mimi Walters. They would be at a significant financial disadvantage.
6) UC-Irvine professor John Graham, who has challenged Cox three times, may try again for the Democratic side. Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2 to 1 in the district.
