State of Republicans:
Republicans are experiencing the frustration of power as numerous political issues work against them.
1) Public confidence in Congress is currently very low by historical standards, and as the majority, Republicans cannot help but shoulder the public’s ill will. Among the issues at work are the continued bloodshed in Iraq, the controversy surrounding Majority Leader Tom DeLay, and President Bush’s failure so far to make Social Security reform palatable enough that it becomes a political asset rather than a liability.
2) Although the next election is far away, these issues give Democrats plenty of ammunition for next year. On the other hand, the issue of Democratic obstruction of Bush’s judicial nominations still works in Republicans’ favor.
3) The Senate picture is shaping up to be worrisome for the GOP. National Republican Senatorial Committee fund raising is far from exceptional. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chairman, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D.-N.Y.), has kept Democrats at parity. Although our opinion is unchanged that they will keep their majority in 2006, Republicans could suffer a bad cycle—perhaps a loss of two seats.
4) In Tennessee, Rhode Island, Montana, Pennsylvania and possibly Texas, Republicans will need to defend open or vulnerable seats. Sen. Rick Santorum (R.-Pa.) looks very ripe for defeat, and Sen. Lincoln Chafee’s (R.-R.I.) future remains in doubt as a possible Republican primary looms. The Republican field in Tennessee has become very crowded, and the Democratic hopeful, Rep. Harold Ford (D.), is not to be taken lightly.
5) GOP pick-up opportunities in the Senate have also dimmed significantly. In Florida, Rep. Katherine Harris (R.) begins as an underdog against Sen. Bill Nelson (D.). In Michigan, Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D.) approval numbers are unexpectedly strong. In Minnesota, Rep. Mark Kennedy (R.) has fallen behind in fund raising, even though he was supposed to be the favorite. In Nebraska, the White House appears willing to let Sen. Ben Nelson (D.) alone. Although it is still winnable, the race in North Dakota to unseat Sen. Kent Conrad (D) can succeed only if Gov. John Hoeven (R.) gets in.
6) The GOP has only a long-shot chance of capturing the seat of retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D.-Md.), and even worse chances of taking the open seat in Vermont vacated by Sen. James Jeffords (I.). Sen. Maria Cantwell (D.-Wash.) will almost certainly survive 2006 unless former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R.) runs against her. Improbably, long-entrenched Sen. Robert Byrd’s (D.-W.Va.) seat appears to be one of the more likely pickups for the GOP.
7) The race of 2006 has the potential to become a disaster for the GOP, especially if close House races fail to go their way. Republicans have no room for complacency.
8) The conservative agenda is faltering in Congress. Fifty House Republicans defected on the vote on stem-cell research funding, and seven GOP senators made a compromise on judges that many on the right view as unacceptable.
9) Social Security reform continues to be a mixed bag for the GOP. Although Bush has successfully convinced the public that there is a problem with the system, he has not sold them on his ideas for reform.
10) Conservatives are increasingly restive about illegal immigration as Bush continues his push for a limited amnesty. And to add to Bush’s problems, conservative Rep. Walter Jones (R.-N.C.) has become a media star because he is joining Democrats in demanding a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.
11) There is still plenty of time before the next election. RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman, who ran Bush’s campaign last year, knows this game well, and his fund-raising prowess is providing the party with the resources to do it. The question is, can the GOP turn things around?
