President 2008: We take our first early look at the presidential race in 2008.
1) Democrats: There is a surprising unanimity inside the party that the next presidential nomination is Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D.-N.Y.) to lose. We think that is a grossly premature judgment, but that is the view of experienced politicians. The only difference of opinion in the party is the potential impact of such a development—ranging all the way from disaster to salvation.
There are many twists and turns between now and 2008, however, for the first serious woman presidential candidate. Consequently, prudent Democrats are looking at alternatives: It is a very thin field.
Virginia Gov. Mark Warner: He is unknown nationally to voters and hardly a familiar figure with party insiders. But on paper he is a perfect candidate: a winner from a Republican “red” state, a moderate image with an essentially liberal record, good looking and congenial. Republicans fear him more than they do Hillary.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.): Yes, he’s trying again. But all he really has to commend him is name identification, and that advantage will fade rapidly.
Ex-Vice President Al Gore: He is Kerry squared—high name identification, but very unpopular. Nobody takes him seriously, but he does have faithful coteries of supporters who believe he was cheated out of the presidency.
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark: He did not run all that well in the 2004 race, but he escaped from it with his reputation fairly intact. He is a possibility.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson: He looks more like a vice-presidential prospect than a presidential candidate, but he is an excellent, experienced candidate and the first serious Hispanic candidate.
2) Republicans: In contrast, the Republican race is wide open and the field is large.
Sen. George Allen (Va.): He ranked first in the National Journal poll of insiders earlier this year, and that is confirmed by well-placed party officials. He is a good ole boy who is shrewder and smarter than he is given credit.
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney: He looks like the most attractive, finished candidate, but he carries two handicaps for winning the presidential nomination: 1) Doubt among party insiders that a Mormon can be elected President; 2) He is from the wrong part of the country for a Republican. He may also duck out of next year’s re-election bid, knowing he cannot win, and it won’t look good.
Sen. Bill Frist (Tenn.): The Senate leader is running hard and cannot be written off. His colleagues on Capitol Hill do not give him much chance, but a perceived victory in the great judgeship struggle could push him into the nomination.
Ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani: He leads in the popular opinion polls for now, but he is too unacceptable on social issues to have a chance.
Sen. John McCain (Ariz.): He is second to Giuliani in the polls but almost as unacceptable in the party because of his tax-cut apostasy.
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: He is widely regarded as the strongest possible Republican candidate—except for his name. Phobia of a Bush dynasty rules him out. Still, if he were to face off against a Clinton dynasty, this may not be as much of a factor.
In addition, there is a host of dark horses among Republicans: Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.), South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and New York Gov. George Pataki.
