This week we continue our look at 2006 U.S. Senate races, with an eye on Florida and Vermont.
Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D.-Fla.) continues to look surprisingly weak in early polls as he faces the dangerous first re-election.
1) For an incumbent senator, Nelson keeps a rather low profile. This seems to be the biggest complaint against him: Although he is an attractive candidate on paper, he remains a relative unknown after more than four years in office. It is no stretch to suggest that many Florida voters don’t even know who he is. Nelson won an open seat very narrowly in 2000 over the poorly run campaign of former Rep. Bill McCollum (R.).
2) With only the remnant of a state party behind him, Nelson is clearly in trouble. He also polls just behind two potential opponents. Although the poll is a GOP poll, it is still troubling to see him running at 44%, behind Atty. Gen. Charlie Crist’s (R.) 45%, and behind state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher (R.), 46% to 44%. The situation is even more dire for Nelson considering the might of Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R.) political machine, which has delivered repeated victories for Republicans since 2000.
3) The Republicans’ big problem is that no one knows who will run this race. Both Crist and Gallagher are supposedly running for governor, although Republican strategists expect that one of them will get into the Senate race instead. But then there is Rep. Katherine Harris (R.), who feels she is owed after deferring to now-Sen. Mel Martinez (R.) last year.
4) Harris does not want to run without the White House imprimatur. She has spoken more than once with White House political adviser Karl Rove, who began running the numbers last month. Although Harris denies it, the vague public comments she has given make it sound like Rove is discouraging her.
5) Of the four Republicans tested, Harris polls weakest against Nelson—trailing him 48% to 44%—despite the fact that she is well known statewide for her role as secretary of state in the 2000 Florida recount. Harris is such a polarizing figure that Nelson actually gains 3 to 4 points at the mention of her name.
6) Some key Republican players want Harris out of this race. One failed even to mention her name while discussing the possible candidates. Although Harris was able to win statewide as secretary of state, when no one knew who she was, even her sympathizers note that she has never shown the kind of discipline for a tough statewide challenge against an incumbent.
Vermont: Sen. Jim Jeffords (I.) jumped out of the race for re-election. No sooner was he out than Rep. Bernie Sanders (I.) indicated he wants to run.
1) Vermonters enjoy and love Sanders as their quirky, wild-eyed Socialist congressman. But the possibility of Sanders as a senator makes even disciples of Howard Dean uneasy. Senators, one noted, can have a real impact. Sanders always won his at-large seat with strong majorities, but he could have a hard time winning this race if Republicans can put up a real opponent.
2) Sanders caucuses with the Democrats in the House, but maintains his independent identification. Because he works with them, both state and national Democrats never mount serious challenges against him for his House seat. But from the perspective of any Democrats interested in Jeffords’ seat, Sanders is using the independent label to cheat and avoid a primary contest. There are no indications so far that Sanders will become a Democrat for this race, nor would he have to face a Democratic primary. But it is not impossible that some important Democrat—such as Atty. Gen. Bill Sorrell— will object to a Sanders’ coronation.
3) On the GOP side, Gov. Jim Douglas (R.) has counted himself out and plans to run for re-election. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R.) is the next natural choice.
