This week we continue our survey of governor's races in 2006, with an eye on Maryland and Minnesota.
Maryland:
No incumbent governor has ever lost in Maryland, but Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich could be the first.
1) Contributing to the lack of incumbent defeats is the fact that Maryland has the strongest governor in country. The executive alone has power to put money in the budget. As a result, policy groups that rely on government grants or want funding for their priorities have little choice but to flatter and not criticize.
2) Maryland also has more political patronage jobs than the entire federal government. The result is that thousands of families depend on the governor for their livelihood. The flip-side of this is the extremely hostile media environment Ehrlich faces.
3) Ehrlich's strongest potential opponent is Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D.). O'Malley brings to the race money, a political machine, strong name recognition and some sympathy after apparently false rumors were spread about his marriage earlier this year.
4) O'Malley also has one major liability: Baltimore. Both Ehrlich and O'Malley's likely primary opponent, Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan (D.), are sure to exploit the city's poor situation and hang it around his neck. Duncan, the clear underdog in the primary, will use the same strategy, so that Ehrlich can in turn continue the drumbeat and frighten liberal-to-moderate residents of wealthy Montgomery County with images of urban violence and mismanagement in Baltimore.
5) Although outmatched, Duncan cannot be counted out entirely. He represents the county with the greatest number of Democratic voters who will actually show up to vote.
Minnesota:
A new development confirms that Minnesota will be this year's political Armageddon.
1) The state will have both an open Senate seat and a competitive governor's race. It will also have at least one relatively competitive open House seat with strong candidates representing both parties in the 6th District.
2) As if Minnesota were not already one of the most important states in American politics today, White House strategist Karl Rove upped the ante with his recent visit. Rove stopped in Minneapolis to raise money for Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R.), who faces re-election in 2006.
3) According to published reports, Rove requested specifically to raise funds for Pawlenty rather than the state GOP. The significance is immediately obvious.
4) Pawlenty, who has strong bonafides with both social and economic conservatives, is known as an environmentally friendly conservative who strongly supports gun rights and opposes abortion and gay marriage. He has cut his state budget without raising taxes, and he supports re-importation of prescription drugs.
5) If he enters the 2008 cycle as the popular second-term governor of a key swing state, he could be presidential material, strong with his base and with some significant crossover appeal. Rove's visit confirms this analysis. Pawlenty's weakness, however, is his state party's poor showing in 2004.
6) Democrats, therefore, have every reason to defeat Pawlenty next year. Their only fear is that their once-strong political bench is all but depleted. If Atty. Gen. Mike Hatch (D.)-a two-time gubernatorial loser but a formidable candidate-chooses to keep his current job instead of taking the risk of challenging Pawlenty, there are few others out there to face him. The next-best hope would be state Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson (D.), a former Republican himself.
