Bush Administration:
The administration's poor congressional relations cause even the most sympathetic observers to worry, while hope for an early withdrawal in Iraq could end what has become President Bush's political Achilles' heel.
Personnel:
Since taking office in 2001, Bush has won tax cuts, bankruptcy and class-action reforms, oil drilling in ANWR, an increased Republican majority in Congress, and a second term as President. He has pacified Afghanistan and removed Saddam Hussein from power, arguably giving hope to the democratic reform movements that have taken hold in Ukraine and Lebanon.
Yet the alarming consensus among Republicans in Congress and even in the Bush Administration itself is that this administration is "dysfunctional" and incompetent, especially when it comes to congressional relations.
1) In fact, this administration seems to succeed at times in spite of its own best efforts. Its chronic malfunctions are more often than not a matter of bungled personnel decisions and unfilled positions.
2) At Treasury, several key posts always seem to be empty. The number of unfilled Pentagon positions is comparable. When Deputy Treasury Secretary Samuel Bodman left Treasury to become secretary of Energy, no successor had been prepared. Likewise, when Paul Wolfowitz departed to become World Bank president, no replacement was apparent.
3) Bush's head of congressional relations, former lobbyist Candida Wolff, is a virtual unknown even to senior Republican members of Congress, underscoring the lack of basic communication between Bush and the Congress.
4) In some agencies, the White House has aggressively persecuted even minor staffers whose loyalty might be in doubt. In others, important posts continue to be held by allies of former President Bill Clinton. Many have burrowed themselves deep into the various bureaucracies and survived the handover of power. This is particularly true at State, USAID and the Department of Education, but also at minor agencies such as the Federal Maritime Commission.
5) Both political appointees and civil servants sympathetic to Bush worry that, whereas Clinton left a strong mark on government institutions, Bush has not. His eight-year presidency could have little long-term effect on the bureaucracy, thanks to bungling on personnel.
Iraq:
Bush's greatest political liability will never become an asset, but it has largely escaped attention in recent weeks. This is thanks to a dramatic improvement in the situation on the ground, which finally allows the administration to consider withdrawal.
1) Now that it is no longer preposterous to imagine local security forces in control of Iraq, it is conceivable that U.S. withdrawal will begin in earnest within a year. Whereas six months ago it appeared that U.S. officials might have to ignore a bloody secular conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, the insurgency has failed to erupt into a genuine civil war.
2) U.S. military commanders are upbeat as the Marines finish off the last bitter holdouts. In some areas even Sunnis are tiring of the insurgency. Iraqis are generally growing more supportive of the new government and eager for an end to violence and the establishment of normality.
3) The other major factor making withdrawal likely is the new secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice. The most dominant secretary since Henry Kissinger, she is one of President Bush's most trusted advisers. Rice, who wields considerably more power than her predecessor, Colin Powell, is expected to favor withdrawal even if the result on the ground in Iraq does not constitute perfection in terms of security or democracy.
4) Backing Rice in this belief is Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld believes strongly that an intrusive U.S. occupation in Iraq only benefits the insurgency by creating anti-American resentment among ordinary Iraqis. This is why Rumsfeld has consistently opposed the addition of more American troops.
5) In the same vein, the grassroots democratic sentiment boiling up in Lebanon is to get rid of Syrian troops, not to welcome American troops.
6) The view that a more-or-less quick withdrawal is desirable reflects not only the national consensus but also the preponderance of Republican opinion. Without debating the wisdom of military intervention in Iraq two years ago, Bush's supporters believe it now is time to go and leave the task of subduing the insurgents to Iraqis.
7) By withdrawing from a less-than-perfect Iraq, Bush would be essentially discarding the Wilsonian message of his second inaugural address. But Americans are tired of war, especially now that 1,500 servicemen have died in the fighting, with thousands more wounded.
