This week we review some closely watched Senate races in 2006.
Maryland:
Shortly after Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D.-Md.) announced his retirement, Democrats all over the state began plotting to run. The picture on the Democratic side is extremely crowded with top-tier candidates. Meanwhile, the Republican field is down to one man.
1) Declaring themselves out of the race were House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D.), Rep. Al Wynn (D.) and Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich.
2) First into the race was former five-term Rep. and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume (D.). Mfume??¢â???¬â???¢s quick leap into this campaign could explain his early and unexpected departure from the NAACP in December. Other Democrats in the mix are liberal Montgomery County Rep. Christopher Van Hollen, and the more moderate Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, a former (suburban) Baltimore County executive.
3) Ruppersberger??¢â???¬â???¢s selling point is his moderation and his base of support in a swing county. Van Hollen??¢â???¬â???¢s is his liberalism and the strong financial base in his district. Mfume??¢â???¬â???¢s is his leadership in the black community??¢â???¬ ¦quot;no small consideration in a state where blacks cast 25% of the votes in the last general election. In Democratic primaries, that number is much higher, giving Mfume a leg up from the beginning. Mfume will also have a small grassroots army working on his behalf, and may carry the day if he is the only black candidate in a crowded primary.
4) Although this state is clearly Democratic and liberal, it is winnable for Republicans, who would like to see Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R.) run. Aside from Steele, a strongly conservative African-American, the Maryland GOP has no serious contenders in the wings. The party??¢â???¬â???¢s farm team is very thin. The only advantage to this is that there will be no divisive GOP primary.
5) In a race against any white Democrat, Steele would need to win an unusually high number of black votes in his home of Prince George??¢â???¬â???¢s County??¢â???¬ ¦quot;the wealthiest majority-black county in the United States??¢â???¬ ¦quot;and then win handily among whites. Against Mfume, the strategy is more complicated. Steele would have to exploit the rift between black liberals and Jews over the issue of Israel. This would allow him to dampen Mfume??¢â???¬â???¢s financial and voter support in Montgomery County, and then win 80% of the white vote outside Montgomery.
6) Either way, the odds are long for any Republican in Maryland. Steele will need a very large financial commitment from the national GOP if he is to enter this race.
7) In the background is the governor??¢â???¬â???¢s race, which could change the equation for the Democratic candidates. Many Democrats would like to see either Baltimore Mayor Martin O??¢â???¬â???¢Malley or Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan get out of that race and run for Senate instead, thus averting a bloody primary.
Nebraska:
With the exit of Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning (R.) from this race, moderate Sen. Ben Nelson (D.) appears more and more likely to get a free pass??¢â???¬ ¦quot;or at least face only a second-tier opponent??¢â???¬ ¦quot;as he defends this improbably Democratic seat in a strongly Republican state. Many believed this might happen when Bush appointed Nelson??¢â???¬â???¢s expected rival, then-Gov. Mike Johanns (R.), as secretary of Agriculture.
Former Atty. Gen. Don Stenberg (R.), who narrowly lost to Nelson in 2000, is considering a rematch. Other possible Republican candidates include former state GOP Committeeman David Kramer, Omaha businessman Kerry Winterer, and state legislative Speaker Kermit Brashear.
Washington:
An early poll confirms what we anticipated months ago, namely the weakness of Sen. Maria Cantwell (D.), who faces re-election next year. A Rasmussen survey in late February showed former State Sen. and gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R.) leading Cantwell, 47% to 44%.
1) Although polls mean very little at such an early stage in any race, it is a universal sign of weakness when an incumbent trails a potential challenger this early in the game.
2) Cantwell will be especially weak because of her financial situation. She will be hard-pressed to raise money because she has already been tapping her donor base ever since she was elected in order to pay off campaign debt from 2000.
3) At this point, Rossi has no plans to run for Senate in 2006 because he still hopes to become governor. He remains mired in a lawsuit to overturn last year??¢â???¬â???¢s governor??¢â???¬â???¢s election, which he lost after two recounts.
