Iraq:
Although violence continues in U.S.-occupied Iraq, signs are emerging that the American war effort there is paying off, and that it could cease to be the political dead weight on President Bush that it once appeared.
1) Democrats have recently adopted a talking point of demanding of the President a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. This was a key feature of the Democratic response to Bush's State of the Union address. But now a key liberal Democrat, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D.-N.Y.), has broken ranks with the party. She disowned and criticized that demand recently, stating that such a timetable would only encourage terrorists and weaken the hand of the nation's new democratically elected government.
2) This marks the first time there has been any serious bipartisan consensus over the conduct of the Iraq War since the March 2003 invasion. Part of this is a reflection of Clinton's political ambitions. She has of late sought to moderate her positions, and now even her criticism of Bush, in order to seize the political center. Looking back over the last two election cycles, it is abundantly clear that Democrats' incessant and often petty criticism of Bush for every act of his administration has not helped their cause politically. Clinton may now be charting a different course and at the same time differentiating herself from her party's key figures-her main rivals for the 2008 presidential nomination.
3) But part of the new tone on Iraq stems not from politics, but from a growing consensus, in the wake of Iraq's successful elections, that Bush's Iraq adventure may not be the unmitigated disaster that many expected. With a new democratic regime in Baghdad comes some semblance of order.
East Asia:
The administration provoked anger in Beijing with a major change in policy when the U.S. co-authored with Japan a joint statement that identifies Taiwan as a common security concern of the two nations. U.S. and Japanese officials declared that the easing of tensions in the Taiwan Strait is among their "common strategic objectives," prompting protests at what the Chinese government called "unprecedented" interference in issues of Chinese sovereignty.
1) In their statement, the U.S. and Japan also urged China "to improve transparency of its military affairs" in the light of recent aggressive military investments by Beijing. The Chinese military has a history of establishing front and phantom companies that facilitate Red China's advances in military technology and its international diplomacy.
2) China has viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province ever since the Nationalist army of Chiang Kai-shek fled there and established a separate regime after losing its civil war to the People's Liberation Army of Mao Tse-tung in 1949. But Chinese officials have eyed Taiwan nervously in recent years, fearful that the island nation may try formally to assert its independence.
3) The U.S.-Japanese mention of the Taiwan Strait came in a joint statement mostly dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis. For the U.S., this document represents a major shift in policy that goes far beyond Taiwan itself. By bringing Taiwan into the discussion of Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities, the statement highlights what few have dared state openly-that America's difficulties with North Korea are really difficulties with China as well.
4) Although some diplomatic critics complain that the U.S. is alienating China just when Americans acutely need the Chinese in order to deal with North Korea, the U.S.-Japan document injects some reality into Sino-American relations.
5) China, far from being a disinterested party in U.S.-North Korean relations, uses North Korea to antagonize U.S. interests. This partly explains Bush's insistence on multilateral talks with North Korea that include China, rather than bilateral talks with Pyongyang.
