Outlook:
The past two weeks have been the most favorable for President Bush since his re-election.
1) There is no question that the national elections have changed the mood in Iraq. The insurgents are a long way from being subdued, but the momentum is clearly against them. From a U.S. political standpoint, the imperative for Bush is to establish a level of Iraqi security that will permit the start of troop withdrawal.
2) On the domestic side, the prospects for Bush's Social Security program would seem to be hopeless. There is not one prominent congressional Democrat on board, and many Republicans are lukewarm at best.
3) Bush's rise in the polls (at 57%, according to Gallup) deflates a key Democrat talking point-endlessly echoed by the news media-that he has a lower poll rating than any re-elected President.
4) The imminent election of Howard Dean as Democratic national chairman reflects the party's division and inability to put together a unified facade.
5) Senate Democrats fell flat in their attempt to use confirmations to make policy points. The intense criticism of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales made the Democrats look petty.
State of the Union:
The February 2 State of the Union Address was a major success for Bush, timed as it was to capitalize on Iraq's successful January 30 elections. It was probably also the best-delivered speech he has given since the months following the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
1) As important as the substance of Bush's speech was the context in which it was delivered. His inaugural address, heavy on the rhetoric of freedom and democracy, had been delivered amidst deep misgivings about the upcoming Iraqi elections. But with those elections successfully behind him, Bush began his speech with a leg up, newly unburdened by his greatest political liability: Iraq.
2) This made possible the most emotionally charged moment of the speech-a tribute to the mother and father of a slain soldier, both of whom were present in the House chamber, and two women who voted in the recent Iraq and Afghan elections.
3) The successful Iraqi election, in conjunction with Bush's speech, has at least temporarily reversed the negative view Americans held of the Iraq War. A new CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll shows that Bush's numbers improved from 51% approval to 57%.
4) As his other major theme, Bush discussed reform proposals for Social Security. Without becoming mired in specifics, Bush clearly explained why the program's fiscal problems are real. He noted the prominent Democrats who have proposed some of the more draconian ideas on the table for the program's reform.
5) Democrats, at a loss to attack Bush on Iraq for the moment, have changed tactics with some success. Now they have turned to attacking Bush's zeal to reform Social Security as unwarranted and dangerous for beneficiaries.
6) Democrats have gotten considerable mileage simply by questioning the need for reform and accusing Bush of attempting to undermine the Social Security system and to take away benefits that Americans would otherwise receive.
7) It looks like they start the battle with an advantage: The same CNN poll that showed Bush's approval up after the State of the Union Address shows that Americans have not warmed considerably to his Social Security proposal.
8) Although Iraq and Social Security were the main themes of his speech, Bush also reached out to his conservative base by reaffirming his support of the traditional definition of marriage and announcing that his new budget would eliminate or sharply reduce funding for 150 government programs he deemed unnecessary or duplicative.
