Senate 2006 Outlook:
We continue our look at next year's 33 Senate races, this time examining three states in the nation's heartland.
Missouri:
On paper, freshman Sen. Jim Talent (R.) is one of the weakest Republicans facing re-election next year. But in fact, he is favored for re-election, perhaps a strong favorite.
1) Although his 2002 special election victory over appointed Sen. Jean Carnahan (D.) was very narrow, it should be remembered that Carnahan-widow of Gov. Mel Carnahan-was the sentimental favorite in that year. That Talent could beat her just two years after her husband's tragic death was itself impressive.
2) Talent's appearance as a quiet and wonkish legislator belies his creative politician's mind. Talent is one of the very few serious Republican candidates in the country who actively courts and advertises himself directly to black voters. A Protestant whose father was Jewish, he has also heavily courted Jewish support by embracing the issue of Israel as few other senators have. Both efforts have paid off to some degree.
3) Talent's fund-raising ability is very impressive. He raised $8.5 million for his 2002 race, and his fund-raisers expect to come up with nearly twice that by 2006.
4) The Democratic bench in Missouri is not terribly strong. State Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon (D.), a veteran office-seeker, is likely to run. He had filed and raised his first $1,000 as of late September 2004. Another possible candidate is state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D.), an EMILY's List favorite who just lost her gubernatorial bid to Matt Blunt (R.).
Nebraska:
This race changed significantly when the most likely GOP candidate, Gov. Mike Johanns (R.), accepted President Bush's nomination to be secretary of Agriculture.
1) The choice makes life easier for Sen. Ben Nelson (D.), as Johanns was probably Nelson's most threatening potential 2006 rival.
2) As one more salvo in what has nearly become a political war between the Bush Administration and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R.), the White House urged Johanns not to tell Hagel about the impending nomination. Hagel was surprised to hear about the nomination of his friend and ally. He got the news while on an official trip in Iraq. Hagel had been the one pushing a Johanns run against Nelson-whom he detests.
3) Nelson may thus have become the beneficiary of the Hagel-Bush feud. Moreover, he is the Democrat most likely to deal with Bush on the President's top issues this Congress. He recently held discussions with the conservative Club for Growth on Social Security and tax reform.
4) This does not mean Nelson automatically gets a free pass. He could still face a serious Republican challenger, but Johanns, Rep. Tom Osborne (R.) and Rep. Lee Terry (R.) have all taken themselves out of the race. This leaves only the state's Republican attorney general, Jon Bruning, and a few minor, unknown potential challengers.
Ohio:
Sen. Mike DeWine (R.) is safe if he chooses to run for reelection, and it appears that he will. Despite some speculation, there is little reason to suggest that he would jump into the governor's race, subjecting himself to what promises to be a bruising primary to replace the unpopular and term-limited Gov. Bob Taft (R.).
Despite John Kerry's 49 percent performance here last year, the Democratic Party is decimated in this state, having failed to run a serious candidate for statewide office in many years.
Underscoring this is the fact that high-level Democrats are touting talk-show host Jerry Springer (formerly the Cincinnati mayor) as a Senate candidate. Another sign of DeWine's strength is a recent comment from U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland (D.) that he deeply respects him and would not run against him.
