Outlook:
The Gallup Poll's rating of 51% approval for President George W. Bush is surprisingly low for a re-elected President and reflects problems that are both current and future.
1) Problem No. 1 is Iraq. There remains a strong but silent vein of opinion inside the administration that the U.S. should pull its forces out of Iraq soon after the Jan. 30 elections. That seems impossible now, but getting out of Iraq will be the primary goal. Complaints by the generals that there are insufficient troops in Iraq are becoming more vocal. The use of Reserve and National Guard troops is also a political problem.
2) After President Bush got off to a slow start on the tsunami, he has turned it to his advantage.
3) Immigration is a sleeper problem that is coming awake. The commitment by the House Republican leadership, after the deal on the intelligence reform bill, is to bring back immigration elements that were dropped from the bill. That opens Pandora's box that definitely does not include President Bush's guest worker proposals.
4) The President opens his second term with two very difficult legislative goals - Social Security and tax reform - that will be used to measure Bush's success in his second term.
5) The biggest positive for the President is the economy. The outlook is good for sustained growth. This is preventing Iraq from really bringing him down.
Iraq:
President Bush has vowed to press on with the nation's January 30 elections despite a possible boycott by Sunni Muslims.
The administration argues that any delay would only embolden Iraqi insurgents. It would also prove embarrassing for Bush when he gives his State of the Union Address in early February. On the other hand, if the election goes poorly, it could be even more embarrassing for Bush when he addresses the nation.
Bush's disapproval rating on Iraq is at 56% in the Gallup poll. He may be staking his entire second term on a successful Iraq election.
Attorney General:
The nominee, White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales, fielded questions for more than six hours during his January 6 confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
1) Democratic senators beat Gonzales up a little, and more than one openly questioned his candor. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D.-Vt.) said he would have thought the nominee was a senator, considering his ability to filibuster so well. But the interrogation was not as hostile as some close to the process were expecting.
2) Gonzales gave evasive answers about his role in drafting the administration's position on torture. He repeatedly told the committee that the President does not condone torture, but that he was unsure if the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse episode was a result of confusion about what tactics would be tolerated.
3) Democrats gave Gonzales nothing like their scorching treatment of John Ashcroft in 2001. The most likely explanation is political. As the Hispanic vote continues to even out between the two major parties, Democrats are wary of abusing the man poised to become the first Hispanic attorney general.
4) In an indirect way, Gonzales makes a good fit for both right and left, both of whom feared something worse. Liberals are happy just to see Ashcroft gone. Conservatives are glad that Gonzales was appointed as attorney general, making his appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court much less likely. The Right is suspicious of Gonzales because of his past support of legal abortion during his time on the Texas Supreme Court.
