On Thursday’s Human Events Daily, host Jack Posobiec spoke with pollster Rich Baris about a trend for President Donald Trump among younger voters, the generation that helped fuel his rise to the presidency. Baris said the data shows women in the 30 to 44 age range, part of the younger cohort of voters, are the segment most at risk.
“Look at the 30 to 44, overall, of course, but definitely look at the even women, 30 to 44, compare that to women who are 65 plus. This is where he's seen the biggest bleed, Jack,” Baris explained. “The happiest voter right now, the happiest Trump voter, is a boomer male who watches Fox News. That is not who he needs to be… kowtowing to. He has lost a huge part of his younger coalition from that generation we were talking about last segment down.”
Baris warned that Trump’s recent focus on foreign policy issues has contributed to the drop-off. “It’s happened because of too much focus on foreign policy since the spring, too much of a concern for what's going on in the Middle East with Israel and not enough on why these voters elected him in the first place,” he said. “And if there’s not a turnaround real soon here, Jack, it’s not going to be good in the midterms, and honestly, even if Trump turns it around, I don't think it'll be good for Republicans.”
Posobiec dug into the data, noting that older voters remain loyal, but younger voters are showing a marked decline. “Those are the people who gravitated towards Trump more than anyone,” he said. “Where do you see the split? Because I’m looking at it now and it looks like, I would say, 45 is the point. Under 45, suddenly there’s this big drop off.”
Baris confirmed that the pivot occurs around age 45, highlighting that younger voters simply have different priorities than older ones. “When it comes to approval, I think 45 is right where we pivot. The bottom line is it's telling us they have different priorities, Jack. And here’s why Republicans should be concerned. The Republican Party was dead until Donald Trump came along. He reinvigorated it.”
He added that the America First coalition is younger and more diverse than the traditional GOP base. “MAGA, America First—is younger, it’s more diverse. It’s not just white and old, white 65-year-plus that Republicans know how to win. And by the way, as time goes on, this age cohort is going to become the biggest share in the electorate, Jack.”
Posobiec noted that younger voters were instrumental in Trump’s previous victories, making the trend especially worrying for the president as he prepares for upcoming elections.
“These are the voters who delivered Trump in 2016 and 2020,” Posobiec said. “If they continue to drift away, it could fundamentally reshape the landscape for 2026 and beyond.” Barris concluded, warning Trump and the GOP about the urgency of re-engaging younger voters. “If Trump wants to keep his coalition intact, he’s got to speak to why they supported him in the first place—not just pandering to the base that’s happy now, but the one that built him. Because if he doesn’t, Jack, it’s going to cost Republicans down the line.”
“Look at the 30 to 44, overall, of course, but definitely look at the even women, 30 to 44, compare that to women who are 65 plus. This is where he's seen the biggest bleed, Jack,” Baris explained. “The happiest voter right now, the happiest Trump voter, is a boomer male who watches Fox News. That is not who he needs to be… kowtowing to. He has lost a huge part of his younger coalition from that generation we were talking about last segment down.”
Baris warned that Trump’s recent focus on foreign policy issues has contributed to the drop-off. “It’s happened because of too much focus on foreign policy since the spring, too much of a concern for what's going on in the Middle East with Israel and not enough on why these voters elected him in the first place,” he said. “And if there’s not a turnaround real soon here, Jack, it’s not going to be good in the midterms, and honestly, even if Trump turns it around, I don't think it'll be good for Republicans.”
Posobiec dug into the data, noting that older voters remain loyal, but younger voters are showing a marked decline. “Those are the people who gravitated towards Trump more than anyone,” he said. “Where do you see the split? Because I’m looking at it now and it looks like, I would say, 45 is the point. Under 45, suddenly there’s this big drop off.”
Baris confirmed that the pivot occurs around age 45, highlighting that younger voters simply have different priorities than older ones. “When it comes to approval, I think 45 is right where we pivot. The bottom line is it's telling us they have different priorities, Jack. And here’s why Republicans should be concerned. The Republican Party was dead until Donald Trump came along. He reinvigorated it.”
He added that the America First coalition is younger and more diverse than the traditional GOP base. “MAGA, America First—is younger, it’s more diverse. It’s not just white and old, white 65-year-plus that Republicans know how to win. And by the way, as time goes on, this age cohort is going to become the biggest share in the electorate, Jack.”
Posobiec noted that younger voters were instrumental in Trump’s previous victories, making the trend especially worrying for the president as he prepares for upcoming elections.
“These are the voters who delivered Trump in 2016 and 2020,” Posobiec said. “If they continue to drift away, it could fundamentally reshape the landscape for 2026 and beyond.” Barris concluded, warning Trump and the GOP about the urgency of re-engaging younger voters. “If Trump wants to keep his coalition intact, he’s got to speak to why they supported him in the first place—not just pandering to the base that’s happy now, but the one that built him. Because if he doesn’t, Jack, it’s going to cost Republicans down the line.”
