The two talked on the bill’s mass deportation provisions, tax reforms, and broader implications for the economy and Trump’s second-term agenda.
“So, Boyle, we were originally having you on to talk about what the count is on the Big Beautiful Bill, the Big Beautiful Deportation Bill as I’ve been saying,” Posobiec began, “but there’s other elements as well, including the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, a number of other items that are coming in here. But the main thing for Trump supporters and Trump voters is the understanding that this is the bill to get those mass deportations. This is the top issue. This is the number one issue for Trump supporters.”
“Now we’re seeing this huge backlash—it started as backlash in the Senate. Budget hawks and deficit hawks like Rand Paul had come in on it, and a few others—Mike Lee and Ron Johnson—who had some issues with it. And now Elon Musk weighing in, and we’ve seen just an absolute missive over on X.”
Boyle downplayed the perception of major resistance in the upper chamber, predicting a near-term breakthrough.
“First off, I’d say that the backlash that you’re seeing—quote unquote—I don’t know if I’d say it’s as big a backlash as people think,” Boyle replied. “I think the Republicans in the Senate are going to find a way to get a version of the Big Beautiful Bill that’s probably pretty similar to the House-passed version through the Senate by the end of the month, would be my guess. Maybe by early July.”
“Then they’re going to get it to Trump’s desk, because there’s so many things that ride on this. The President’s entire agenda and legacy are on the line here. In addition to that, the entire national economy is on the line. In addition to that, the entire national economy is on the line.”
“If they don’t pass something, the 2017 tax rates are going to expire. We’re going to have a massive tax hike on Americans of every income bracket across the country. From lower-middle-class folks—they’re going to see a huge tax increase on them if they don’t pass this.”
According to the White House, President Trump’s “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is a "transformational legislative package" that cuts spending, grows the economy, and rebalances the nation’s fiscal health, with WH officials saying that concerns around spending are exaggerated.
“The Big Beautiful Bill is NOT an annual budget bill and does not fund the departments of government,” said White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. “It does not finance our agencies or federal programs. Instead, it includes the single largest welfare reform in American history. Along with the largest tax cut and reform in American history. The most aggressive energy exploration in American history. And the strongest border bill in American history. All while reducing the deficit.”
Miller dismissed claims that the bill would raise the deficit, citing flawed projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
“The bill saves more than $1.6 trillion in mandatory spending, including the largest-ever welfare reform. A remarkable achievement,” he said. “I’ve also seen claims the bill increases the deficit. This lie is based on a CBO accounting gimmick. Income tax rates from the 2017 tax cut are set to expire in September. They were always planned to be permanent. CBO says maintaining current rates adds to the deficit, but by definition leaving these income tax rates unchanged cannot add one penny to the deficit. The bill’s spending cuts reduce the deficit against the current law baseline, which is the only correct baseline to use.”
Peter Navarro, Trump’s Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, noted that existing forecasts fail to account for tariff-driven revenue increases included in Trump’s broader economic vision.
“In making its projections, the CBO has refused to account for — or ‘score’ as they say in CBO lingo — any of the new revenues from the Trump reciprocal tariffs,” Navarro explained. “Remember here a key goal of Trump’s fair-trade policies is to shift the U.S. tax base from one primarily reliant on income taxes to one that, with the vision of the new External Revenue Service, is also supported by tariff revenues.”
“Such a tariff, depending on consumer responses and enforcement efficacy, should generate between $2.3 trillion and $3.3 trillion in additional revenue over the ten-year forecast period," it states.
"When this revenue is layered onto the enhanced dynamic growth scenario, the projected budget impact from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ranges from a modest $300 billion increase in the debt under the 2.2 percent growth assumption to as much as a $2 trillion surplus under the 2.7 percent growth assumption.”
