Given the collapse of Germany’s governing left-wing coalition, it is highly likely that a conservative-led coalition will rise to replace it. But the question the world is asking is – what kind of conservative? Will the mainstream Christian Democrats/Christian Socialists (CDU/CSU) lead, or will it be the increasingly strong Alternative for Germany (AfD)? And why does it matter? Americans must understand why Vice President JD Vance indirectly mentioned both the party and the elections in his speech at the Munich Security Conference, and why he effectively warned Europe not to alter the election results as they had recently done in Romania.
During a recent visit to Bavaria, I witnessed a remarkable political march, featuring no named parties or banners identifying the cause. The marchers wanted what seemed to be sensible things: Better protections for families, an end to war, a solution to the immigration crisis, lower taxes, and cheaper fuel. Despite the lack of signage, I was convinced that this was an AfD march, and the police confirmed that I was correct. To an American audience, their demands seemed rather run of the mill, echoing the dissatisfaction associated with populist movements here and in the UK. Yet this rather common center-right agenda has been treated as if it were the resurrection of the Nazi Party. If anything, this characterization reflects just how out of touch Germany’s ruling political class has become.
Despite the hysterical comparisons, the German public seems on board. AfD, now the second-largest German party in the polls after a series of electoral victories in September, is for the first time a serious player in a national election. Some of the party's platform, most notably its immigration stance, has been mirrored by the traditional right. This leaves the traditional conservatives in the CDU in a quandary, since they, like all of the other leading parties, have maintained a strict policy of refusing to work with the AfD, the so-called “Firewall.” It was this firewall that Vice President Vance alluded to in his speech imploring the Europeans to adhere to core democratic principles. Enter the controversial immigration bill which came to the floor of the Bundestag just two weeks ago. The bill aimed to reform current immigration laws and was narrowly defeated. But the bigger news was who voted in favor of the motion, since it saw broad support from all of the parties of the right, including the CDU and AfD. The measure failed by twelve votes, but generated outcry against the CDU for supposedly allying with the AfD, something strongly denied by CDU leader Friederich Merz, who is also the CDU candidate for Chancellor.
AfD leaders have built bridges with the Trump administration, with party leaders attending the inauguration, and an increasing number of the party's speeches and communications are being conducted in English, a sign that the AfD realizes it only benefits from speaking to an international audience. This strategy seems to have paid dividends, as Elon Musk has inserted himself into the German electoral process, loudly supporting the AfD and its positions since December, and urging Germans to “get over their past.”
Elections are unpredictable, but as of now there seems little doubt that the right has won big in Germany. Should the new coalition somehow manage to keep the AfD out, it's clear that the party will still exert a major influence on legislation and pull the new coalition toward its positions. At the moment, it seems that the CDU will come in first, with around 30 percent of the vote, and AfD will come in a very close second. If the firewall is still a thing, the CDU would likely partner with one of the left-leaning parties to govern.
Unless- and it is a big unless- the CDU leadership decides to listen to the German people and actually govern from the right. Should that happen, the AfD will have risen from nothing in 2013 to a position of considerable power in just twelve short years. Whatever happens, the Trump administration should be ready to partner with the winner.
Dr. John Callahan is a professor at the Institute of World Politics and New England College.
