Results pouring in from the hard-fought European Parliamentary Election campaigns across Europe have revealed massive voter disdain for the two big centrist blocs in the parliament, and voter endorsement for radical parties all the way from the far-left Greens to the harder political right.
Whereas results evidently differ across nations, the broad themes of the night are:
- Major Eurosceptic victories in Italy, France, and Britain;
- An increase in the eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party;
- An increase for Green and liberal democrat parties across Europe;
- Humiliation for the pro-EU ‘Change UK’ party, as well as the increasingly unpredictable UKIP.
The big winners on the night in terms of personalities are of course Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, and Matteo Salvini.
With the votes from many nations still coming in, Human Events understands the following:
- The Brexit Party – endorsed by Human Events this week – are sweeping the board even in areas people thought they might struggle such as the North West of England;
- Marine Le Pen would be willing to hand Nigel Farage the important presidency of a eurosceptic supergroup, for as long as Britain stays in the European Union;
- The Social Democrat group in the European Parliament will attempt to do deals with the Greens and the Liberal (ALDE) group in order to cobble together a kind of functioning majority in the European Parliament.
What this means in the short to medium term:
- New priorities for the Parliament, which will be riven with divisions both left and right, and between those who wish to centralize power towards the EU;
- New leadership in the parliament, as well as drastically new make ups of parliamentary committees;
- Pressure on Britain’s Labour and Conservative parties to pick sides on the Brexit debate, instead of both trying to ride two horses at the same time.
What parties need to learn:
- Right-leaning and eurosceptics may have wished to take more votes than they did, especially in France. The right hasn’t got to great grips with issues such as climate change, which does indeed appear to be a concern for the electorate, or healthcare issues;
- Left-leaning parties will likely have to acknowledge and deal with increasing euroscepticism on the continent, or continue suffering electoral defeats;
- Centrist parties will likely attempt to double down on their “moderation”, likely to drown them even further.
The impact on the Conservative Party (UK) leadership contest and a general election:
- Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party will now tack right, even if they don’t mean it, in order to try to eat Nigel Farage’s electoral lunch;
- Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom and others will claim to be able to stop the bleed from the Conservative Party to the Brexit Party;
- Nigel Farage will attempt to convince Tory voters they should consider themselves full time Brexit Party voters, not just protest voters.
Other things to note:
- Angela Merkel has truly ruined the CDU/CSU alliance in Germany;
- Emmanuel Macron may not be able to win another French presidential election;
- Salvini has cemented his power in Italy, which will grate with his Five Star colleagues in government;
- UKIP is dead, mostly because of Gerard Batten.
This article will be updated if further analysis comes to light.
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