In what is sure to be the top news story worldwide Sunday evening, Aung San Suu Kyi will probably win a seat in Burma’s National Assembly following that country’s first legitimate elections in 22 years.
The daughter of Gen. Aung San—the George Washington of Burma, who led his country to independence from the British after World War II and was assassinated by political rivals in 1947—Aung San Suu Kyi (pronounced “On San Soo Shee”) is revered worldwide as the voice of democracy in a country ruled since 1962 by military strongmen since 1962 (who renamed Burma “Myanmar”). She was herself under house arrest from 1990 until her release in 2010. With her image and even mention of her name banned during that time, she was referred to in her country as “the Lady” (also the title of a new hit motion picture on her life).
Now, “The Lady” is leading the just-re-registered National League for Democracy into contested elections for only some 5 per cent of the National Assembly (in Burmese, the Pydiaungsu Hluttaw).
But the likely election of the Nobel Laureate and symbol of her country’s hope for democracy raises many more critical questions regarding Burma and the rest of the world. Will the elections Sunday lead to Burma’s military strongmen permitting free and fair nationwide elections scheduled for 2015?
More importantly, will there be a continuation of the country’s recent liberalization of the military’s ham-fisted rule under President (and retired General) Thein Sein—which so far includes permitting independent trade unions, unblocking of dissident websites on the Internet, the freeing of more than 200 (but not all) political prisoners, and, of course, the free and fair (apparently) elections on Sunday.
And, if these gradual steps toward a more democratic system and market economy continue, will it lead to the United States and other Western countries ending sanctions against Burma and investing in its most promising economy? To call Burma a jewel is no exaggeration. Noting what it called “the pace of change” in Burma, the Financial Times noted in 2011 that there is ”renewed attention to a rich in oil and gas, gems and timber. . . [with] significant natural gas reserves, roughly equal to Brazil’s; tourist appeal, fertile rice-growing land; and a youthful population, estimated at about 54 million, that could be tapped to help offset rising labour costs in China.”
China! Any discussion of openings to Burma leads back to China. Long with their fellow strongmen in Beijing, Burma’s rulers are reportedly growing uncomfortable with the growing Chinese influence in their country. Last year, the Thein Sein government ruffled some Communist feathers when he suddenly suspended a $3.6 billion Chinese dam project in Burma. More than a few observers see the recent steps toward democracy as a venue to opening up Burma to Western investment and thus moving away from China.
It all comes back to “The Lady”
All these questions lead back to to Aung San Suu Kyi.
At age 67, and in fragile health (she was recently hospitalized for exhaustion), “the Lady’s” future is uncertain. Whatever her party wins on Sunday, 25 per cent of the Assembly seats are set aside for the military and the ruling regime’s USDP Party shows every sign of holding on until the national elections in 2015.
“Aung San Suu Kyi is the symbol of democracy and her party,” said one American scholar of the Burmese political scene who requested anonymity, “But that’s the problem: she’s all there is . Like a lot of women who have come to power in Asia as part of dynastic leadership, she has no natural heir. There is no one, not now at least, who could take over the National League and lead it after her. No one has her all-encompassing appeal.”
Herein lies the problem for Burma and the rest of the world: whether Aung San Suu Kyi will have enough time to be a transitional figure in her country as, say, Nelson Mandela was in South Africa, or will she and her party be able to groom future leaders.
“I am a person, who is very popular with the public,” her father the “Bogyoke” (general) said a year before he died, “but I am neither a god, wizard or magician.”
“The Lady” may not have to be any of the above. But what she does in the coming weeks and days will have to be both far-reaching and dramatic if Burma is to continue on a path that affects its people, China, and the United States.
