Just before my interview with possible McCain running mate Rob Portman, former Office of Management and Budget and onetime Ohio congressman, I was at lunch with another Buckeye State Republican - Rep. John Boehner. Boehner described his profile for an ideal running mate for John McCain. “Has to be younger than McCain,” Boehner said, amid chuckles, “a solid conservative, and someone people could see as President.”
Taking it a step further, the top House Republican said that since the two major party nominees will both be U.S. Senators, it was less likely McCain would turn to another senator than to “a governor, a former governor, or a former Administration official.”
Did he think his criterion fit Rob Portman, I asked, noting that Portman served the Bush Administration as both U.S. Trade Representative and OMB director?
“I do,” Boehner shot back.
“That scares me that my buddy John Boehner actually feels that way,” Portman said with a laugh, when we caught up and I told him about the luncheon. He recalled how Boehner represented the district just north of the Cincinnati-based 2nd District that Portman -Dartmouth and University of Michigan Law School graduate and White House staffer under the elder George Bush - held from 1993-2005. As he recalled, “When [then-Republican Rep.] Bill Gradison was considering whether he was running again in 1992, that’s when John Boehner took me out to lunch and said ‘get ready.’ And that’s why I’m here today, probably. Because he got me thinking about running for Congress.”
Gradison did run again and win in ’92, but then resigned to take a private sector job. With help from some hard-hitting radio commercials from Barbara Bush, Portman won the special election and held the district until ’05, when George W. Bush tapped him to be U.S. Trade Representative.
It’s not just Boehner but many others - notably syndicated columnist Robert Novak in a highly favorable column - that keep the name of the 52-year-old former budget chief in the vice presidential orbit. Almost all the speculation focuses on Portman’s vast knowledge of economics, an area McCain admits he’s not an expert in.
Portman immediately warmed to the subject. In his words, “[w]hen you look at the challenges that face our country, and there are many, on the domestic front, you have to put at the top of the list the unsustainable growth in the entitlement programs - including Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid - and the cost of health care. And the reason I say the cost of health care is because, as you well know, that’s what drives so much of the government spending, as the biggest payer. And I am concerned that the Democrat candidates don’t seem to be willing to give the American people straight talk about that.
“I think people are ready for it,” Portman said. “I think people understand that because of the demographic changes that come with the Baby Boom generation retiring, and because of the fact these programs were not set up to be sustainable, and because of the fact that health care costs continue to spiral, that reforms are needed.”
“So, I think there is an opportunity here for Senator McCain. And as you’ve heard, on the campaign he talks about this issue. He has a passion for it. He talks about spending in the respect of earmark reform, which is very important.
Portman recalled how, “back in the 1960’s, all of these mandatory spending programs were about 25% of the budget, or less. Today when you add Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, with payment on the debt, and some other smaller entitlements on the agricultural side particularly, you end up with almost 64% of the budget. And that’s a huge shift when you think about that. Domestic discretionary spending is now only 18% of our total budget, and that’s what we spend our whole time arguing about. So, someone needs to talk about this in generational terms, and I think John McCain will do it. I think the Democrats are irresponsible not to address it.”
Portman went on to tell us how in Bush budgets that he and present OMB Director Jim Nussle helped sculpt, “you’ll find some very specific reforms that have gotten very little play. And they have to do with Medicare, primarily. There’s also Social Security ideas there, including private accounts, as you know, which over the long haul results in a higher rate of return for that program. So that’s something that does actually over the long haul deal with the solvency issue.
Regarding private sector solutions to the cost of health care, Portman grows passionate. He believes there are "some good private sector models where people have been empowered to go out and take care of their preventive care, eating better and exercising and so on, giving people a better incentive and rewards for doing that. And they’ve got some good outcomes."
He cited Peter Orzag, a Democrat who’s now the head of Congressional Budget Office, “who’s taken some analysis of health care that I’ve spent some time looking at and it’s actually quite interesting. He focuses on outcomes and quality rather than inputs, which is something that everyone from Newt Gingrich to some thoughtful people in academia have been talking about for some time, but he’s starting to put some numbers behind it. And you can see some big savings just by having Medicare, for instance, reimburse providers based on their outcomes, their successes. Right now it’s all input-oriented. People are getting a Medicare reimbursement on the same level whether they are succeeding or not in terms of treating heart disease, for instance.”
I referred to a conversation with Kathleen Harrington, onetime top staffer to former Medicare overseer Dr. Mark McClellan, in which she insisted that the prescription drug entitlement sought by the Bush Administration and enacted by Congress in ’03 was bringing down the cost of prescription drugs for senior citizens.
“Kathleen’s right,” Portman shot back, adding that “when you have competing providers rather than a government takeover on the prescription drug side it ends up being less expensive.” He dubbed the package that passed the House by two votes following intense Administration pressure “a better model than the Medicare - in general, because it has more private sector involvement.” But Portman also warned that the measure that was so controversial to conservatives “has increased the pressure on Medicare spending” and one cannot escape the fact that “it has increased the overall burden that is currently unsustainable. So [supporters are] right and those who criticize it are right, in that sense.”
What can McCain (who defied the Bush White House and voted against the prescription drug bill) say and do about it today? Portman feels “you have to look at it two ways: that it actually provides a better model, response from seniors is high [and there is] a little unfunded obligation under Medicare. And it means that we need to do what the Medicare trustees have now asked Congress to do, which is come up with sensible reforms for these programs. All of them.”
Our interview with Rob Portman ended where it began - on state and national politics and what role he will play in it. The former congressman dismissed reports that it would be difficult for Republicans to carry his state, noting that he had six polls in front of him showing McCain leading either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in Ohio. Portman also voiced interest in possibly running for governor in 2010, and more significantly, helping Republicans “regain some trust from the voters. That’s what I’m focused on and I’m focused on being sure John McCain is our next president. I think the alternative is unacceptable and I think this is a historic time in our country.”
Would he accept the Number Two spot if McCain offered it to him?
“I think there are also a lot of great names who John McCain is likely to call before me,” he replied, “So, I’m honored, I appreciate it, but I think there are a lot of great choices out there. I also like being home. As you know - you and I talked about this when I left OMB, I think. And I have three teenagers and an elderly father, and I just was commuting for a long time. Fourteen-and-a-half years. And it’s great to be home.”
As for how long Rob Portman will stay home, time will tell.
