Governor 2006
Florida: Rep. Jim Davis (D.) appears to have a leg up on his primary opponents—former state Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox and state Sen. Rod Smith—as he has already hired and deployed field staff at an unusually early stage. Maddox, who is controversial anyway because of his poor management of the party (financial and otherwise) when he served as state chairman until this year, has raised only $303,000 and trails Davis by more than half a million.
Illinois: Prominent Democratic strategists in Illinois fear Republicans can open the Democratic-controlled state to serious competition in 2008 if former Gov. Jim Edgar (R.) makes a comeback next year against Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D.). Edgar as governor, according to this theory, would not only put Illinois in play for the presidential election but also endanger 2008 re-election prospects for Sen. Dick Durbin (D.), who has a propensity for making embarrassing comments.
The moderate Edgar is seen in Democratic circles as the only Republican gubernatorial candidate who could win. But Blagojevich’s poll ratings are down. Already saddled with accusations of selling public offices for campaign money, he is struggling with yet another scandal related to political racketeering.
Kansas: Despite the exit of most logical candidates, Sen. Sam Brownback (R.-Kan.) has not given up hope on shoring up his home base by installing a Republican governor in Kansas before he runs for President in 2008. Brownback is pushing Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to enter this race against Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D.).
Although it is hardly comparable, comparisons are nonetheless being made to Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, another Kansas Republican who ran for office. Republicans cannot be satisfied with their current slate of second-tier candidates, including state House Speaker Doug Mays and former Speaker Robin Jennison. Either one would be a long shot against Sebelius.
Minnesota: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R.) has disguised the move of his longtime friend and chief of staff, moderate former state legislator Dan McElroy (R.), as an attempt to step up government-reform efforts. But in fact, the rationale for this move is entirely different. Pawlenty fears diminishing support in his conservative base after he pushed a tax increase—amusingly referred to by statute as a “health impact fee”—through the state legislature.
Feeling the need to throw a bone to the right, Pawlenty has forced out McElroy, replacing him with conservative state Sen. David Gaither (R.). Pawlenty has his work cut out for him next year as he faces Atty. Gen. Mike Hatch (D.) for re-election.
Oklahoma: Rep. Ernest Istook (R.) is a conservative who tires of serving two masters from his position as a cardinal on the free-spending Appropriations Committee (see “Politics 2005,” Page 16). After merely mulling a Senate run in 2002, he is now likely to challenge moderate Gov. Brad Henry (D.) this year. The way to the nomination is clear now that former Rep. J.C. Watts (R.) and Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin (R.) have opted out. House Speaker Todd Hiett (R.) could also run, but Istook is clearly the stronger candidate.
Henry came into office with a bare plurality of the vote in 2002, thanks to a weak run by former Rep. Steve Largent (R.) and a strong showing by an independent candidate. If Henry hangs around in office long enough, he could be the Democrats’ last decent candidate with any chance of taking away one of the state’s two Senate seats from the GOP.
Republicans, having seized the state House last year, have an excellent chance of taking over the entire state legislature this year, as term limits begin forcing out the dying breed of conservative Democrats.
