Outlook: President Bush is in one of those periods where it appears that nothing is going right. His approval ratings are in decline and have hit new lows. From experience, we find that it never is really as it bad as it looks. Here’s a quick rundown of the pluses and minuses for the President:
1) The biggest asset for Bush is a stable economy—prosperity without a bubble and without inflation. Our informal checks show businessmen are relatively optimistic but that the slump in new investment continues. The biggest worry: whether the real estate boom is a bubble that will burst.
2) Bush’s biggest liability, we believe, is still the casualty lists out of Iraq. We find conservatives and Republicans increasingly impatient with the war and anxious to get out. The position by the military brass that the Iraqi security forces are not yet ready to take over runs counter to what some key policymakers say. If they wait until the security forces are ready, U.S. troops will never leave.
3) We hear that the White House was very concerned about news reports that Bush had used up whatever political capital he had from his 2004 reelection. That is not news. It was clear in the lame-duck session last year that Bush was suffering the inherent problems of a second-term president.
4) Moderates are pressing Bush to get away from his base on judges and stem cell research, but along that way lie deep political dangers. The base is urging Bush to crack down on runaway federal spending, and that might be good political medicine.
Senate 2006: A look at races in Minnesota, Montana, New York and Tennessee.
Minnesota: Rep. Mark Kennedy (R.), in his race to replace retiring Sen. Mark Dayton (D.), now faces two very strong Democrats—child safety activist Patty Wetterling and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar—and one very wealthy opponent, real estate developer Kelly Doran (D.). Klobuchar was raising more than Kennedy as of the end of March and had a slightly larger war chest at her disposal.
Rep. (R.), in his race to replace retiring Sen. (D.), now faces two very strong Democrats—child safety activist and Hennepin County Attorney —and one very wealthy opponent, real estate developer (D.). Klobuchar was raising more than Kennedy as of the end of March and had a slightly larger war chest at her disposal.
Kennedy’s upcoming vote on the Central American Free Trade Agreement could also cause him a great deal of trouble. Northern Minnesota’s sugar beet growers strongly oppose the trade agreement.
Montana: Sen. Conrad Burns (R.), while he is vulnerable, polls at or near 50% and well ahead of both of his announced opponents, state Senate President Jon Tester (D.) and state Auditor John Morrison (D.). As a primary looms, neither of the two appear willing to defer to the other, despite entreaties from Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D.). Although his position remains difficult, Burns faced worse odds when Schweitzer challenged him in 2000. He has already banked more than $1.5 million, which will go a long way in Montana, where airwaves are cheap.
New York: Although Sen. Hillary Clinton (D.) appears almost unbeatable, she may have at least a token opponent. Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro (R.) is signaling interest in a race. Clinton’s other possible opponent is attorney Ed Cox (R.), son-in-law to President Richard Nixon (R.). The idea would be to make Clinton spend some of her money, rather than let her save up for her expected 2008 presidential run.
Tennessee: The official announcement by Rep. Harold Ford (D.) of his Senate candidacy was overshadowed by the arrest of four state legislators on corruption charges. One of those arrested was his uncle, the ever-embarrassing state Sen. John Ford (D.). The younger Ford will already be facing an uphill battle as he seeks the seat of retiring Sen. Bill Frist (R.).
