War:
Both campaigns decided to make this a campaign about the Iraq war, and Bush won.
1) Kerry was able to win over some voters on the war, convincing many independents that Bush was incompetent and foolhardy. Bush might have won big were it not for the war.
2) On Bush's behalf, many voters were unwilling to change horses midstream. Even voters who saw the war as mistaken or poorly executed simply trusted Bush more than Kerry. Part of this is the general trust voters have for Republicans in times of military threat. The issue of war and terrorism was more important as a base mobilizer: Exit polls show that it ranked as the second most important issue among Bush voters.
3) On this topic, Kerry may have been the wrong candidate to take Bush down. Having voted for the war and argued for it before that, Kerry's avenues of attack on Iraq were limited. The only consistent argument Kerry could make was that Bush was utterly incompetent. Other tacks earned him the label of "flip-flopper."
4) Kerry never quite found his message on the war, a fact evidenced by his last-minute jump to the headlines about missing explosives-an issue that resonated only in the media and the Democratic echo chamber. Kerry disastrously spent four of the campaign's critical final days speaking about this story.
Economy:
The second issue in the campaign was the economy.
1) It was the biggest issue for Kerry voters, exit polls show, with Iraq coming second. In the key states of Ohio and especially Michigan, unemployment was exceptionally high.
2) At least in Ohio, social and moral issues took precedence. Exit polls show that a significant percentage of Buckeye voters pulled the Bush lever even as they expressed deep fears about the economy. This reflects the lack of a compelling alternative economic policy offered by Kerry and the Democrats.
3) In states where the economy was better than average, such as Florida and Iowa, Bush outpaced his 2000 totals.
Other Causes:
The candidates themselves and the parties also played a role in shaping the outcome of Election 2004.
1) Despite a less ambitious year than 2002 in recruiting candidates, Bush's success in this became evident once again as former Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R.) narrowly defeated Betty Castor (D.) for Florida's open Senate seat. Bush's former federal budget director Mitch Daniels (R.) also easily won Indiana's governorship, defeating incumbent Joe Kernan (D.). Former Rep. John Thune (R.-S.D.), won as did Rep. Richard Burr (R.-N.C.), whom Bush strongly encouraged to run for the Senate.
2) As we expected, the media talk about the "Young Vote" was all hype. Early exit data show young voters comprising the exact same percentage of the vote as in 2000. Still, unprecedented turnout across the board helped Bush, upsetting the conventional wisdom.
3) Republicans had something of a national message, though vague. It focused on security and traditional values. Democrats were unable to unify as most of their candidates tried to distance themselves from the others.
4) RNC staffers had been boasting for months that their 72-hour program get-out-the-vote was going to be massive, well funded, and unprecedented. They claimed that it would put Bush comfortably over the top, and evidently they were not exaggerating. Reports from some states suggested that the effort was run rather incompetently, but in others-including Florida and Ohio-it was obviously a smashing success.
