Outlook:
This week's election is nearly unprecedented where, apart from the spin, neither side really knows who is going to win on November 3.
1) Republicans seem just a little more confident than Democrats about the outcome. In private, some Democratic insiders express frustration about the inability to drive approval of President George W. Bush (R.) well below 50% and to lift up the sagging approval of Sen. John Kerry (D.).
2) While Democrats wanted badly to focus the election on the economy and other domestic issues, the overriding issue is who can best deal with terror. That would seem to be Bush's strong suit, but Kerry is trying to capitalize on bad news to neutralize the President in that area.
3) A major reason for Republican optimism is the "persuadable" or undecided vote, which looks to be fairly conservative and a better bet for Bush. However, what motivates this strange voting subgroup remains a mystery.
4) The even bigger question mark involves the hordes of newly registered voters. If they all really vote, they are likely to deliver for Kerry. This is the major cause for Democratic optimism and Republican concern, but it is difficult to quantify.
5) This election is all about Bush-pro and con. Passion for or against him runs high. Kerry is almost an afterthought. He was eclipsed even in his own campaign when Bill Clinton appeared with him in Philadelphia.
Electoral College:
President Bush's recent gains in national polls appear to be trickling down to the state level-but not in the most critical states of Ohio and Florida, which remain nailbiters, barely leaning toward the President.
Bush's persistence in the upper Midwest may pay off, as Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota lean toward giving him their electoral votes over Sen. John Kerry. Meanwhile, Kerry gives up on Colorado, and Maine slips from Bush's grasp. Although the margins in some states remain razor-thin, Bush would win with 301 electoral votes to Kerry's 237 if the election were held October 26.
Minnesota:
Bush made just two last-minute visits here in 2000, and he surprisingly came within two points of Al Gore. This time the campaign has doubled its presence of paid staff, and the President has visited the state repeatedly, targeting the northern Iron Range constituency of social-conservative Democrats as well as the suburban and exurban Republican base.
Bush partisans hope for a narrow victory, and public polling definitely leaves that possibility open. A month of polling shows Bush slowly climbing into, and Kerry gradually descending from, the high 40s. Polls by Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon show a statistical tie, each with Bush up by two and dangerously close to 50%. Zogby, who badly underestimated Republican support here when he predicted a comfortable Senate victory for Walter Mondale in 2002, has Kerry leading by just one point. Kerry is concerned enough that he has scheduled a stop in Rochester for Wednesday, and Elizabeth Edwards is appearing in the state as well.
It will be very close, but President Bush now has a better-than-even chance of bringing rightward-trending Minnesota into the GOP fold for the first time since 1972. Leaning Bush.
Hawaii:
Surprisingly, two mid-October polls show this liberal state in a dead heat, with Bush slightly ahead in the mid-40s. Unemployment in Hawaii has fallen sharply over the last year, from 4.5 to just 3.1%. Leaning Kerry.
