Page 3 — GOP Could Pick Up 5 House Seats

With a week to go before Americans vote in all 435 congressional districts, Republicans look poised to expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, based largely on favorable redistricting since the 2000 census.

In the swing states of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans managed to dominate the redistricting process after the census, raising the number of safe Republican seats there.

In Texas, a masterful (if controversial and belated) redistricting is now almost certain to yield the bulk of national Republican gains in this election cycle.

In California, New Jersey, and Virginia, Democratic and Republican state legislators joined together to craft ??¢â???¬?????incumbent protection plans??¢â???¬  that made current House members of both parties invulnerable.

Because of this post-2000 redistricting process, the 2004 election cycle is likely to see fewer competitive House races than any in recent memory. Currently in the House, there are 227 Republicans, 205 Democrats, and 1 Independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont) who votes with Democrats. There are also two vacant GOP seats that were created when Republican Rep. Porter Goss of Florida resigned to become CIA director and Doug Bereuter (Neb.) resigned to take a private sector job.

In Texas, Republicans are likely to pick up six Democratic seats and hold two others in incumbent vs. incumbent races. In other states, three districts currently held by Democrats are now leaning toward the GOP candidate.

On the other side of the ledger, two districts now held by Republican are likely to fall to the Democrats, while two other Republican-controlled districts are leaning Democratic.

Overall, I predict a net gain of five seats for the Republicans. Furthermore, Republican Connie Mack IV will hold onto Goss??¢â???¬â???¢s vacant seat for the GOP. That means the next House of Representatives will have 234 Republicans, 197 Democrats, and 1 Independent. In the chart below, incumbents are in bold type.