Overview:
For Sen. John Kerry (D.), the moment to overtake President George W. Bush (R.) may have come and gone.
1) In national polls, Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s post-convention lead evaporated with the debates. In polls taken after the conclusion of the debates, Bush is now pulling away.
2) In the Electoral College count, there is movement in both directions, and the undecideds in key states will make the difference in the end. Bush holds a slight lead in the Electoral College.
3) Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s problem, with the debates behind him, is that Bush is simply more likable to the average American. With undecideds about 5%-10% in most recent polls, and another 8%-10% merely leaning one way or another, likability is a huge factor. Voters who have not made up their minds after two conventions, four debates, and eight months of campaigning will likely not be swayed on substantive issues.
4) The Kerry campaign is confident it can win older voters with its charges that Bush will privatize and cut benefits for Social Security. With anti-Bush journalist Ron Suskind leading the way with a New York Times magazine article, the Kerry campaign has made this the central theme of its campaign.
5) Democratic campaigns against Social Security overhaul failed in 2000 and 2002, and it is unclear it will work any better in this year??¢â???¬â???¢s presidential race.
6) Some Democrats worry that Kerry has damaged his credibility with recent low blows. Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s and Sen. John Edwards??¢â???¬â???¢ (D.-N.C.) harping on Mary Cheney??¢â???¬â???¢s sexual orientation did not come across well. Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s picking up the rumor-mongering on a draft and Edwards??¢â???¬â???¢ line about people like Christopher Reeve walking again in a Kerry Administration were overtly cynical.
7) Republicans complain that the media is in full campaign mode for the Democrats. The Bush team worries that consistent negative press coverage could do harm in the home stretch.
8) Vice President Dick Cheney??¢â???¬â???¢s trip to Indiana to help governor candidate Mitch Daniels (R.) may be a sign of confidence, that the campaign feels it can afford such diversions. Bush leads Indiana by double digits.
Final Debate:
The final debate was not much different from the second. Kerry won on points, but Bush won on the score that mattered: boosting his chances for victory.
1) On an objective and purely critical scale, Kerry is a better debater. He speaks more clearly, has better command of the issues and thinks better on his feet. Bush, however, fared better on this score in the last two debates than he had in the first one.
2) Kerry has serious negatives at the debate podium. He still comes across as haughty, and his use of Cheney??¢â???¬â???¢s family life upset some voters. Bush is folksy, which fuels some of the hatred of him, but comes across well to the voters who have no strong opinions on most issues.
3) Bush has shifted from the flip-flopper charge to the liberal charge in his attacks on Kerry. While Kerry aides object that both cannot be true at the same time, they are both effective. Bush is trying to paint Kerry as scary in order to win over some voters who are displeased with the President??¢â???¬â???¢s performance so far.
4) The media??¢â???¬â???¢s expectation of a Kerry advantage on domestic issues presupposed a debate on who would spend more money on veterans, health care and education. The questions and the discussions, however, allowed Bush to appear like a reformer, while Kerry had to wrestle with charges of ??¢â???¬?????government-run health care.??¢â???¬
5) On the whole, Kerry had one crucial victory in the three debates: He came across as presidential. Just holding his own against the President of the United States made Kerry look good.
