With two weeks to go before voters go to the polls in 34 states to choose U.S. senators, prospects are good the Republicans will make a net gain of 3 seats.
Such a gain would increase their Senate majority from the current 51 to 49 (when Independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont is counted with the Democrats) to 54 to 46.
The Republicans appear poised to pick up seats in five states where Democratic incumbents are retiring-Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina
But they appear likely to lose only two seats held by GOP retirees-Illinois and Colorado.
In addition, the GOP should retain hotly contested seats in Oklahoma and Alaska (where appointed Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski will win a term of her own).
Here is my state-by-state analysis (incumbents' names are in bold face).
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Likely Republican Pick-Ups
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Florida | Mel Martinez | Betty Castor | Former HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham |
| Georgia | Rep. Johnny Isakson | Rep. Denise Majette | Isakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D). |
| Louisiana* | Rep. David Vitter | Chris John, John Kennedy, others* | Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D). |
| North Carolina | Rep. Richard Burr | Erskine Bowles | Burr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards. |
| South Carolina | Rep. Jim DeMint | Inez Tannenbaum | DeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D). |
Leaning Republican Holds
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Alaska | Sen. Lisa Murkowski | Tony Knowles | Murkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor. |
| Oklahoma | Tom Coburn | Rep. Brad Carson | Big Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson. |
Certain Republican Holds
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Alabama | Richard Shelby | Wayne Sowell | Shelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama |
| Arizona | John McCain | Stu Starky | McCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress. |
| Idaho | Mike Crapo | Scott McClure | Former Republican McClure is write-in candidate. |
| Iowa | Charles Grassley | Art Small | Since he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election. |
| Kansas | Sam Brownback | Lee Jones | After two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones. |
| Kentucky | Jim Bunning | State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo | Bunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo |
| Missouri | Kit Bond | State Treasurer Nancy Farmer | Bond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state. |
| New Hampshire | Judd Gregg | Doris "Granny D" Haddock | Gregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D". |
| Ohio | George Voinovich | State Sen. Eric Fingerhut | Voinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll. |
| Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter | Rep. Joseph Hoeffel | After near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term. |
| Utah | Robert Bennett | Paul Van Dam | Bennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms. |
Likely Democratic Pick-Ups
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Colorado | Pete Coors | State Atty. Gen. Kenneth Salazar | Coors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices. |
| Illinois | Alan Keyes | State Sen. Barack Obama | Convention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states |
Leaning Democratic Holds
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| South Dakota | John Thune | Tom Daschle | Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources. |
| Washington | Rep. George Nethercutt | Patty Murray | Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden. |
Certain Democratic Holds
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Arkansas | State Sen. Jim Holt | Blanche Lincoln | Lincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt. |
| California | Bill Jones | Barbara Boxer | Ex-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer. |
| Connecticut | Jack Orchulli | Christopher Dodd | Dodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli. |
| Hawaii | Kam Cavasso | Daniel Inouye | 42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso. |
| Indiana | Marvin Scott | Evan Bayh | Bayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott. |
| Maryland | State Sen. E.J. Pipkin | Barbara Mikulski | Mikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls. |
| Nevada | Richard Ziser | Harry Reid | Reid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser. |
| New York | Howard Mills | Charles Schumer | Schumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady. |
| North Dakota | Mike Liffrig | Byron Dorgan | Dorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig. |
| Oregon | Al King | Ron Wyden | Wyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King. |
| Vermont | Jack McMullen | Patrick Leahy | Leahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen. |
| Wisconsin | Tim Michels | Russell Feingold | Former U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive. |
*Under Louisiana law, candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot and, if no one has a majority on November 2nd, the top two vote-getters meet in a December run-off.
