Overview:
President George W. Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s poor performance in the first debate saved Sen. John Kerry (D), but it certainly did not sink Bush.
1) Only two post-debate polls (Zogby and Associated Press) have shown Kerry ahead-Zogby, most recently by one point.
2) Two polls released this weekend showed Bush ahead. Most notably, Bush hit the 50-percent mark in an ABC News poll and a Rasmussen poll. This means Bush is doing as well today as he was before the first debate.
3) Polls from after the second debate (see below) give a mixed assessment, placing Bush anywhere between five points ahead and one point behind.
4) Still, the race is wide open, and both campaigns underwent a change in mood after the first debate.
5) More importantly, Kerry has made a surge in some key battleground states.
Second Debate:
President George W. Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s dramatically improved performance in the second debate stops the bleeding.
1) The chief difference between Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s performances in the first two debates was style. Many factors contributed to the better appearance. First, Bush abandoned (or at least dramatically toned down) his tactic of treating Kerry dismissively-poor execution of this plan was the chief culprit in the first debate. Second, the town hall format is more comfortable for the President, who has always spoken better when face-to-face with real people. Bush was clearly relaxed, as evidenced by his jokes. Finally, Bush made a real effort to avoid grimacing and smirking.
2) In general, Kerry is a better debater than Bush. Kerry looks presidential, overcoming a major obstacle for most challengers. Kerry has a better speaking voice than Bush and is taller. He is also far better at speaking off script. Still, in this particular debate, Bush came across slightly better.
3) Bush attacked Kerry persistently enough that Kerry found himself off balance on a few occasions. The President limited his ??¢â???¬?????deer-in-the-headlights??¢â???¬ moments to one or two.
4) On foreign policy, Bush more coherently made his arguments and critiques of Kerry than he did in the first debate, saying Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s claims at coalition-building in Iraq are naive.
5) On the issue of abortion, Kerry and Bush both tacked right, Kerry moving to the middle, and Bush being unapologetically pro-life. This reflects a Democratic realization that there are very few votes to be won on the pro-choice side, while pro-lifers are more motivated by the issue.
6) Perhaps the most important consequence of the debate was saving Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s supporters from despair. Just as Kerry reinvigorated his base with his first debate, Bush has repaired GOP morale.
7) The debate was competing for viewers with playoff baseball, which means many television viewers may be left with Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s first debate as their only impression.
Electoral College:
Despite the shift in momentum, Bush is climbing in as many states as he is falling. This week, we move Pennsylvania back to the Kerry column, which is probably where it will be on Election Day. Bush 285, Kerry 253.
Florida:
A reporting trip to Florida finds that it promises to be as hotly contested in 2004 as it was four years ago.
1) Bush has a problem in Florida with base motivation. We found many voters who prefer Bush to Kerry and support the Iraq war, but are not enthusiastic about the President and do not intend to vote for either candidate.
2) Kerry does not have this problem. His supporters-more accurately described as Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s opponents-are motivated to vote.
3) The Democratic Party apparatus is highly motivated and dedicated to maximizing turnout, especially among black voters. For this purpose, the Kerry campaign plans to take advantage of the early voting (new to Florida) that begins October 18. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D.), Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s state chairman, is devoted almost wholly to turnout.
4) Among Cubans, Bush also has problems. Estimates from one Cuban community leader in Miami have Bush earning 70 to 75% of the Cuban American vote. Considering Bush needed over 80% to win Florida in 2000, this is bad news. Bush has disappointed many Cubans, and there is no Elian this year to drive voters.
5) Cubans, however, have one of their own on the GOP ticket: Senate candidate Mel Martinez. Martinez will boost Cuban turnout, but may not be able to bring Bush back to 80% among that demographic.
6) Martinez is hitting his opponent Betty Castor hard over Castor??¢â???¬â???¢s alleged inaction when a suspected terrorist, now arrested, was in employ at the University of South Florida. These ads are hurting Castor, but they are vicious enough that they could backfire, as attacking female candidates often does.
