Presidential Debate:
The first presidential debate was a victory for Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.), giving the challenger the momentum he needs to make up his deficit with President George W. Bush (R.).
1) Most important in the battle for the undecided voters, was Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s tone and lack of eloquence. On the first note, Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s hope was, rather than hold up the war in Iraq as a success, to dismiss Kerry as an inexperienced waffler with no credibility. Bush failed in most cases to pull this off, instead coming across as annoyed and dismissive.
2) Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s ineloquence made him look ill-prepared and resulted in Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s missing chances to score major points. Even within the debate, Kerry put forth positions that appeared contradictory, and Bush barely drew that out. Most notably, instead of dismissing Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s ??¢â???¬?????global test??¢â???¬ offhand, Bush should have hammered away at it, exploiting this gap between Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s foreign policy and the typical American viewpoint.
3) For his part, Kerry came across relatively composed and confident. In a possibly crucial detail, Kerry, taller, with a deeper, graver voice, looked more presidential. At the same time, while he was less haughty than usual, he did not avoid that particular flaw.
4) The Bush team had hoped to disarm the Iraq issue with last week??¢â???¬â???¢s debate, and it failed. Instead, the issue is still alive, and, for the first time, Kerry comes across as a credible applicant for the job of Commander-in-Chief.
5) It was not a blowout by Kerry, though. Kerry did not do a stellar job, and according to Newsweek??¢â???¬â???¢s poll (otherwise full of bad news for Bush) most voters still trust Bush more on Iraq and homeland security.
6) While Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s lack of eloquence is nothing new, the annoyed tone was the result of misguided coaching. Republicans blame Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s performance on fatigue from a too-packed schedule. This week, they are giving him two days off so that he will be well-rested for the next debate.
7) Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s performance boosted Democratic morale, which had been falling to dangerous levels. A reinvigorated party base and a media once again warm to Kerry give the challenger momentum, though not a lead.
8) Republicans are worried, as reflected by the changed schedule and the blitz led by National Security Director Condoleezza Rice to clarify Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s position. On the same note, Bush changed the topic of his speech in Allentown, Pa. this week from Medicare to terrorism.
Vice Presidential Debate:
Vice President Dick Cheney scores a slight victory in a vice presidential debate that will have little impact.
1) Cheney made a wise decision in sticking with his staid tone, coming across as sincere and serious. Trying to match Sen. John Edwards??¢â???¬â???¢ (D.-N.C.) chipper exuberance would have been folly.
2) Edwards tried to do too much. He attempted to combine his characteristic youthful charm with his running-mate duty of attack-dog. The end effect was burying the charm and likability, which may have been the greatest assets he brought to the ticket.
3) Cheney generally did well on the attack, aided by his calm tone. However, the Vice President missed a few chances to skewer Edwards.
4) Neither candidate brought much new material to the debate. Edwards??¢â???¬â???¢ attacks echoed Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s, while Cheney could have been reading from Republican National Committee opposition research papers.
5) Vice presidential debates have historically had some memorable moments, but have never affected the outcome. This one had only very few top-tier zingers.
Electoral College:
There have been almost no post-debate polls in the swing states. Polls have held steady, and so we leave the Electoral College where it was before last Thursday, with Bush winning all of his 2000 states plus Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, minus New Hampshire. Bush 305, Kerry 230.
