House Overview:
While the Democrats have slim hopes of gaining the Senate, they have no hope of taking over the House. At the moment, we place only 28 races in the competitive category.
We have removed from the competitive category Louisiana??¢â???¬â???¢s 5th congressional district, where Rep. Rodney Alexander (R.) has successfully fought of lawsuits to remove him from the ballot or to reopen the filing period so more serious Democrats can run. Alexander is now safe as a Republican.
After the primaries, we also put Republicans Jeff Fortenberry (R.) of Nebraska??¢â???¬â???¢s 1st district and State Sen. Randy Kuhl (R.) of New York??¢â???¬â???¢s 29th district both safely in the GOP column. Reps. Heather Wilson (R.-N.M.) and Rob Simmons (R.-Conn.) are both new on the endangered list.
The result is a field with 14 vulnerable incumbents (seven from each party), nine competitive open seats (six GOP-held, three Democrat-held), plus five tough Texas races, including two incumbent-against-incumbent matches.
The other 407 races appear to be uncompetitive, with 217 of them likely or certainly going Republican and 189 strongly leaning Democrat (plus left-wing Rep. Bernie Sanders [I.-Vt.]).
This means Democrats would need to win every single competitive race in order to gain a majority.
In Texas, we see a net GOP gain of six seats. Elsewhere, we see each party winning two open-seat takeovers, and no incumbents losing.
Republicans +6, 235-199-1.
Senate Overview:
Despite having effectively 49 seats in the Senate, Democrats do not have a strong chance for taking control of the upper chamber.
Georgia and South Carolina are leaning very strongly towards GOP takeovers. Democrats partially offset those losses with a near-sure win in Illinois. But Democrats would have to win all seven highly competitive races in order to get to 51 seats.
If Democrats are able to get 50 seats, a Bush win would give the GOP the tiebreaker. A Kerry win could result in an open seat and popular election in Massachusetts, leaving the GOP with at least temporarily a 50-to-49 majority.
Republicans +1, 52-48.
Florida:
The Republican Party came out of the primary not at all united, giving an early edge to former State Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D.).
Of the GOP??¢â???¬â???¢s grass roots, many were dedicated to former Rep. Bill McCollum (R), who generally voted conservative. However, he was seen as unelectable, and the White House convinced then-Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R.) to run.
Some conservatives resent Martinez??¢â???¬â???¢s nomination as White House heavy-handedness even though he may be more conservative than McCollum. This bitterness will probably wear off, but any split in the party is trouble in a state where Democrats have won the past few Senate races.
Leaning Democratic Retention.
Illinois:
Failed 2000 presidential candidate Alan Keyes (R.) has run a poor campaign, to the surprise of few. State Sen. Barack Obama (D.) is not nervous about his election to the seat being vacated by Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R.).
Likely Democratic Takeover.
South Dakota:
The latest Rasmussen poll showed Rep. John Thune (R.) leading Sen. Tom Daschle (D.). These Rasmussen surveys may be erring in the GOP??¢â???¬â???¢s favor, and all other recent surveys are partisan polls, making this race nearly too close to call.
Both candidates performed well in the ??¢â???¬?????Meet the Press??¢â???¬ debate. Thune hit Daschle for obstruction while Daschle accused Thune of being a follower and a negative campaigner. Thune and Daschle are perhaps the most politically skilled rivals in any race this year. Expect a race as tight the 2002 South Dakota Senate contest. As of today, Thune would win.
Leaning Republican Takeover.
