Kerry Campaign:
The soaring Democratic optimism of late July faded badly in a miserable August.
1) The hopes died weeks ago that Kerry would come roaring out of the Boston convention as Bill Clinton came out of New York 12 years ago, well ahead of the incumbent Republican president.
2) The Kerry team descended on New York City in the midst of the Republican convention, mainly to reassure influential journalists that all was well. It was a very difficult, if not an impossible sell.
3) Party insiders privately agree that August has been a waste with the candidate refraining from making any attacks on President Bush. James Carville, an influential force inside the Democratic Party, has been vocal in criticizing Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill for too slow an approach.
4) For the first time, we have encountered real ridicule heaped on Kerry by Democrats, such as over wind surfing at Nantucket as the Republican convention began.
5) The Kerry campaign has abruptly switched to the anti-Bush emphasis that Carville had been calling for, with Kerry scheduling a midnight rally in Ohio following the Bush acceptance speech to attack the lack of military service by both Bush and Vice President Cheney.
6) Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s Ohio speech following the convention was lackluster. The crowd lacked energy, and Kerry lacked focus, skipping from topic to topic. The decision to turn negative, going after Cheney??¢â???¬â???¢s and Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s ??¢â???¬?????refus[al] to serve??¢â???¬ reflects a change in posture from ignoring attacks on his service to firing back.
7) The problem with that is that it contradicts the Kerry campaign??¢â???¬â???¢s contention that Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s military record is off limits for campaign inquiry.
8) The Swift Boats veterans??¢â???¬â???¢ attack on Kerry continues, and it still draws blood. There is no doubt that the Kerry campaign made a serious miscalculation in Boston by ignoring the candidate??¢â???¬â???¢s record in the Senate, including his quest for Vietnam MIA??¢â???¬â???¢s, while opening his military record in Vietnam.
9) Democrats console themselves that Kerry always has been an effective and aggressive finisher. But he needs to give the troops something to cheer.
Bush Campaign:
The President??¢â???¬â???¢s high command has been cheered by the unexpected Kerry ineptitude so far.
1) The windfall, the Bush lieutenants confide, is that Kerry sat out the month of August and gave Bush a free field for the whole month.
2) No matter what protests may be made to the contrary, the Bush strategy is to attack repeatedly. The President??¢â???¬â???¢s advisers think they have drawn blood and will continue those tactics.
3) Besides the careful planning of the convention speakers, the Bush campaign was effective in rounding up some 270 flag officers to endorse Bush (compared to 17 backing Kerry in Boston) and the endorsement in Queens during the convention by the Greater New York Firefighters.
U.S. Intelligence:
The unexpected intelligence reform proposed by Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R.-Kan.) is overly bold, damaging chances for rapid reform.
1) Cynics believe that it was an intentional sabotage. It was not, but is damaging, nevertheless.
2) Roberts??¢â???¬â???¢s plan is far more radical than the independent Kean Commission??¢â???¬â???¢s proposals. Roberts would, in effect, abolish the CIA and strip away from the Defense Department its intelligence functions.
3) It was considered a remote possibility that the current Congress, before it goes out of business at the end of the year, would enact any of the Kean reforms. Now, the complications unexpectedly introduced by Roberts seriously confuse and complicate the outlook.
