The conventional wisdom two weeks ago was that the number of truly undecided voters in this presidential election was simply too small for President Bush to get a big bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention in New York. But at least two major polls indicate the conventional wisdom was wrong.
A Newsweek poll conducted on the last night of the convention and the following night showed Bush opening up an 11-point lead over Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. In the same poll a month earlier, Bush had trailed Kerry by two points. A Time magazine poll conducted the last three nights of the convention also gave Bush an 11-point lead. In that poll, Bush had trailed Kerry by 5 points only a month before.
A USA Today/CNN/Gallup conducted on the three nights immediately following the convention also showed Bush getting a bounce, although not as big as the one in the polls by Newsweek and Time. In this poll, however, Bush was actually leading Kerry before the convention started.
As the results of the Newsweek poll indicate (see details below), Bush's comeback seems to be buoyed by the popular perception he is more trustworthy than Kerry, would do better in a national security crisis, and is more likely to share the values of the voters.
August 5-10, 2004
September 2-3, 2004
August 3-5, 2004
August 31-September 2
August 23-25
September 3-5
Newsweek Poll
September 2-3
Percentage who answered, "yes," to the following questions about each candidate
| ????? |
BUSH
|
KERRY
|
| Has strong leadership qualities |
65%
|
47%
|
| Is honest and ethical |
62%
|
47%
|
| Cares about people like you |
53%
|
49%
|
| Is personally likeable |
67%
|
59%
|
| Says what he believes, not just what people want to hear |
66%
|
42%
|
| Would trust him to make the right decision during an international crisis |
57%
|
44%
|
| Shares your values |
54%
|
42%
|
| Is too conservative |
32%
|
-
|
| Is too liberal |
-
|
45%
|
