Democrats:
The party's faithful are simultaneously confident and unhappy with Sen. Kerry's performance.
1) The high Democratic state of morale is built almost entirely on intense, highly emotional hostility to President Bush. It surpasses even the anti-Nixon peak three decades ago.
2) We continue to hear Democrats worried that Kerry may blow this golden opportunity, that he is slow in reaction time-as shown in the Swift Boats controversy (see below).
3) Democrats are reassured by Kerry's history of losing every battle but the last, feeling that he will pick up steam after Labor Day.
Swift Boats:
The controversy that had barely begun at the time of the Boston convention has become, at least temporarily, the overriding issue of the campaign.
1) The Kerry campaign's effort to handle the attack on the candidate's war record by ignoring it was a total failure. The book Unfit for Command and coverage by radio talk shows and the Internet forced the mainstream media to consider it.
2) Kerry's response is basically to try to tie the Bush campaign to the attack ads and to force him to repudiate them. The friendly mainstream media cooperates in this, but the danger here is that it continues to put the issue before the public.
3) High-placed Republicans privately say the emphasis should be on Kerry's Senate record, not his war record. But there is no question that the Swift Boat accusations generate greater public reaction and are easier to understand.
4) The unanswered question is whether this has any real impact on how people vote. But it has distracted Kerry and slowed his momentum-to the benefit of Bush's reelection.
Florida (27):
A Republican-sponsored poll last week showed Kerry ahead 47% to 46%, far tighter than the six-point lead a Quinnipiac poll showed the week before. This means Kerry would still win were the election held today, but expect that lead to vanish in coming weeks. Leaning Kerry.
Iowa (7):
A poll last week of 801 likely voters showed Kerry ahead by only one point. Again, this was a GOP polling company, but it still shows that Kerry is only barely hanging onto this state which is a critical part to his victory strategy. Leaning Kerry.
Michigan (17):
Last week's ARG poll confirmed what we had predicted: Kerry's huge lead dwindling away. The survey of 600 likely voters showed Kerry up 48 to 45. That puts Bush within the margin of error and Kerry below 50% in a state Vice President Al Gore (D.) won relatively easily in 2000 (five points).
After the convention, Michigan may swing to the Bush column. This state is perhaps the most promising pickup for Bush, especially as Pennsylvania continues to look like infertile ground. If the election were held today, Kerry would barely win here. Leaning Kerry.
New Mexico (5):
Two polls last week of likely voters showed disparate results. Rasmussen had Bush and Kerry tied at 46% while ARG showed Bush down seven points. With Hispanic immigration and possible nationwide Democratic improvements in American Indian turnout, Bush needs to pull ahead here to win. Leaning Kerry.
Ohio (20):
Almost any count of the Electoral College suggests that Ohio will be the difference this year. At least, Bush may find it impossible to win without the Buckeye State.
As the determining state among a split populace, Ohio is appropriately too close to call. A Republican poll shows Bush up four points, while three neutral polls in the past two weeks show Kerry with two-to-three point leads. If Bush is significantly below 50%, as he is in most recent polls, Kerry will win.
However, a Zogby poll released Tuesday shows Bush over 51%. Leaning Bush.
Pennsylvania (21):
The same Republican pollster that shows sunny results for Bush around the country shows Kerry still nicely ahead here. Likely Kerry.
Wisconsin (10):
Kerry needs to worry about Wisconsin, as Bush starts to appeal more to socially conservative blue-collar workers. The latest poll (a Republican one) shows Bush and Kerry tied at 46%. Leaning Kerry.
