Electoral College:
In the lull between the conventions, there has been little movement in the current Electoral College picture, but that doesn??¢â???¬â???¢t mean there are no interesting trends in key states.
Missouri continues to remain difficult for Bush, while the upper Midwest tightens, presenting some promise for Bush. Although he would beat Bush only barely in the popular vote, Kerry would win big if the election were held today. Kerry 301, Bush 237.
The Fall:
The story of the downfall of Gov. Jim McGreevey (D.) does not primarily concern homosexuality. It concerns the failed and corrupt leadership of a governor put in power by a political machine that then acted to save itself at his expense.
1) McGreevey was in power as the candidate of a particular political machine in New Jersey, controlled by former State Senators George Norcross (D.) and John Lynch (D.). McGreevey was never terribly interested in governing, and his chief appeal to Norcross and Lynch was his ability to raise funds.
2) That virtue was intricately tied to the downfall. Many of McGreevey??¢â???¬â???¢s friends and fundraisers recently came under investigation or suspicion or entered guilty pleas on fundraising problems. Most notably, McGreevey fundraiser Charles Kushner pleaded guilty in a case where he hired a prostitute to seduce his brother-in-law in an attempt at blackmail.
3) With McGreevey??¢â???¬â???¢s allies collapsing, and McGreevey proving a disaster more interested in using the levers of power for personal satisfaction than aiding the party or the machine, his erstwhile friends and sponsors made it clear he needed to step down. This was the only way to avoid damage to the state party and, more acutely, the Norcross-Lynch machine.
4) McGreevey is not resigning because he is homosexual or because an affair went wrong, but because everyone around him was collapsing, and they were going to take him down with them.
The Timing:
McGreevey??¢â???¬â???¢s announcement to make his resignation effective November 15 insured that there would be no special election to replace him. If he resigned before September 4, a new governor would be chosen November 2. Instead, the acting governor will serve until after the regular 2005 elections.
1) An immediate resignation, which McGreevey was forced to consider, would have benefited the Norcross-Lynch machine. The ascension to the powerful top job of State Senate President Richard Codey (D.) temporarily removes power from the hands of Norcross and Lynch. In a November, 2004 special election, the party establishment (and thus Lynch and Norcross) would have picked the candidate, who would have been the favorite.
2) That candidate would be Sen. Jon Corzine (D.), who would be the odds-on favorite against any Republican. This would mean a brief, ten-week interregnum for the machine.
3) Corzine would have liked this plan, had it not been such an affront to his colleagues in Washington. Corzine is the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and leaving mid-cycle to run for governor would have been insulting and disruptive. In the end, Corzine and Codey met and decided it was in both of their best interests to not rush McGreevey??¢â???¬â???¢s resignation, and to put off any election until 2005.
4) From the Republican perspective, the best hope was for a special election in which Corzine was not running. However, the GOP had no say in this decision.
Alexander Switch:
A low-level state judge has thrown open the ballot in the district where Rep. Rodney Alexander (La.) switched parties from Democrat to Republican at the last minute to enter the majority while warding off any serious Democratic challenge.
1) The ruling would allow for a new filing period, in which any candidates could file. With Alexander receiving bad press for his switch, he might be vulnerable. However, Democrats may not have a strong candidate to field.
2) The decision is pending appeal. Even if it is found Alexander violated some law, a higher judge might impose some other remedy, such as requiring Alexander to run as a Democrat, or removing him from the ballot. In the former case, Alexander would simply switch affiliation after the election. In the latter case, former State Rep. Jock Scott (R.) would likely beat homemaker Tisa Blakes (D.). In either event, the GOP would keep the seat.
3) The current ruling, if it is not overturned, is the most favorable possible for Democrats, but it certainly does not guarantee a Democratic recapture of this seat, which Alexander barely won in extraordinary circumstance in 2002.
