Outlook:
In the interim between the conventions, all the optimism is with Democratic loyalists while Republicans tend to be pessimistic. More than a reflection of the polls, this analysis reflects the mood and the level of confidence.
There is a sense that neither candidate is running much of a campaign right now, but that Sen. John Kerry (D.) will be the winner over President George W. Bush (R.) if there is no change in momentum. All the confidence now appears to be on the Democratic side.
Bush:
The President's performance is not engendering optimism. He is working hard, realizing the difficulty of his situation. Nevertheless, unhappiness reigns in Republican ranks.
1) Bush's recent trip to Dallas for a multi-state gathering of big money givers typified the disappointment he has been leaving with supporters. He seemed unfocused and going through the motions, evoking bitter memories of his father in 1992.
2) We hear complaints from rank-and-file Republican activists that there is insufficient receptivity by the President's high command to the concerns of ordinary supporters-particularly in his conservative base.
3) Grass-roots activists and Beltway conservatives feel slighted by Bush's handling of the platform. The abbreviated markup schedule (only two days), the lack of public information, and the campaign proxies as co-chairmen (Gov. Bill Owens [Colo.], Sen. Bill Frist [Tenn.] and Rep. Melissa Hart [Penn.]) suggest the 2004 platform will follow the model of the Democratic platform, which avoids any substantive stances on difficult issues.
Apparently locked out of decisions on the direction of the party, these activists plan to make a stink in New York.
4) There remain conservatives hoping Bush loses in November. Some, in the mold of three-time candidate Pat Buchanan, object to the Iraq war and immigration liberalization. Others complain about expanding government or Bush's game-winning RBI for Sen. Arlen Specter (R.) when he faced a primary challenge from the right.
5) The economy remains worrisome, fueled by the anemic jobs figures for July (though these figures seem understated). The rising price of oil and the fear that the Federal Reserve will go too far in raising interest rates lead to a corporate reluctance to spend, putting full reliance on consumers.
6) There is widespread feeling that the President must come forward with a new second term agenda when he accepts the nomination in New York. At a minimum, he must aggressively push Social Security reform, but he is being urged to begin talking about tax reform and become more forceful in pressing to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
7) Bush operatives want no part of the anti-Kerry effort by Swift boat veterans, but Republicans outside the White House see a possible major breakthrough here. Having decided to highlight his war record, Kerry has opened the door to its examination.
8) Considering how difficult the electoral map looks right now, Bush backers in California are pleading with him not to abandon the Golden State.
Kerry:
The Democratic candidate is not stirring any hearts, but the party activists think he can back into the White House if the current climate persists.
1) We hear Democrats complaining that Kerry projected no vision in Boston and still has not projected one. He still has not adjusted fully to being a general election candidate.
2) Kerry's statement that he would still vote for war in Iraq cuts the ground out from the anti-war argument. He sounds like the flip-flopper the Republicans claim him to be.
3) The Democrats say Kerry never gets fully activated until the last month of the campaign or at least until the debates are held, and he surely does not appear to be activated now.
4) Kerry's war record remains a problem, which explains the ad hominem attacks on his critics. It is necessary to watch closely whether this is picked up by the mainstream news media.
Electoral College:
The Kerry mini-bounce makes the difference only in West Virginia, which would be the fourth "Red State" to go for Kerry were the election held today (Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire are the others). A flip of Florida would put Bush in striking range, and he could win then with either Nevada and West Virginia or one bigger state such as Wisconsin or Michigan.
Kerry 301, Bush 237.
Georgia Senator:
Freshman Rep. Denise Majette (D.) has become the first woman and the first black nominated for the U.S. Senate from the state of Georgia. Majette last night handily defeated entrepreneur Cliff Oxford (D.) in the runoff.
Majette will need something close to a miracle to defeat Rep. Johnny Isakson (R.), who won the GOP nomination without a runoff.
