As we write this from Boston during the convention, it is a carefully planned infomercial to sell Sen. John Kerry to the sliver of undecided voters who will decide the election.
Strategy:
The clearly enunciated plan is to attack President George W. Bush's Administration without getting personal and avoid specifics on what lies ahead.
1) It has been widely and frequently reported that this is the most unified Democratic convention ever, but it also is the most disciplined. The delegates represent the left wing of the party, who would like to have raw meat thrown at them in the form of both Bush-bashing and left-wing proposals. They are willing to go along with a much more restrained presentation.
2) While deriding the Bush Administration for weakening the nation at home and abroad, no personal attacks on the President are permitted. Such assaults were edited out of speeches presented in advance to the convention management.
3) This also means foregoing details of the liberal Democratic agenda. A watered-down platform was approved in advance of the convention-this by a party known for its horrific platform fights of years gone by. Even the Democratic staple of health care is put forward in only the broadest terms in speeches.
4) The real differences within the party are submerged. There has been no serious attempt to resolve internal conflicts on international trade, for example. Accordingly, genuine policy decisions by a Kerry Administration would be deferred.
5) Above all, the overriding strategic imperative is to introduce Sen. Kerry to the undecided as a courageous mainstream patriot who will strengthen America at home and improve its relations abroad. His biography jumps from heroic service in Vietnam to the U.S. Senate, omitting his controversial interlude as a war protester that first brought him to national attention.
Operations:
This convention began as the most tightly scripted Democratic convention in history, even running on schedule.
1) The only person who even partially skirted the restrictions laid down by the convention managers was Jimmy Carter, who as a former president was given more leeway. He was fairly explicit in voicing the old AWOL allegations against Bush.
2) The Clintons spoke and predictably stirred the convention, the first night was a yawner-certainly for the television audience but also for the delegates. Rep. Robert Menendez (D.-N.J.), delivering a long, soporific speech aroused the delegates only when he briefly lapsed into Spanish (which the vast majority of them did not understand).
3) As an infomercial, the convention looks mediocre. Conventions have ceased to be decision-making entities, but they are still a work in progress as an advertising vehicle.
4) The uncontrollable aspect of the convention is what happens offstage-as when Teresa Heinz Kerry told a conservative editor to "shove it" when he questioned her. Democratic insiders consider the candidate's wife a train wreck waiting to happen.
Outlook:
We will publish a special report Friday when the convention ends, but a big "bounce" for Kerry is unlikely, if only because his poll ratings are so high for a challenger. When Bill Clinton got a 14-point bounce out of his 1992 convention in New York, he had started at 28%. Kerry begins at 48%.
This is a supremely confident Democratic convention. But so was the 1988 convention in Atlanta that nominated Michael Dukakis.
Overview:
Recent national polls all showed Sen. Kerry barely ahead of President Bush just before the convention. Once he introduces himself to voters on Thursday, Kerry expects a bounce to take him further ahead, perhaps above 50% for the first time.
The Bush campaign is not too worried about this, relying, as they have all along, on a Labor Day/GOP Convention bounce to make things even, and then a late October surge to take the lead.
Electoral College:
In the run-up to the convention, where Kerry can expect a bounce, he picks up Michigan and, for the first time, Nevada. This swing of 22 electoral votes, if the election were held today, makes the race a blowout in Kerry's favor.
Of course, in the fall, things may swing back in Bush's direction. But at the kickoff of the Boston convention, Kerry is way ahead. Kerry 310 Bush, 225.
Georgia-4:
Former Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D.) impressively won a majority in a 6-way primary, ensuring the fiery liberal's return to Washington.
In 2002, after McKinney's controversial comments regarding the war on terror, out-of-state money helped Majette upset her in the primary, to the joy of Washington Republicans. Majette surprisingly entered the Senate race, perhaps to avoid a tough primary rematch with McKinney.
McKinney was the favorite in the primary.
