The South:
John Edwards was born in South Carolina and currently represents North Carolina in the Senate. His presence on the ticket will not be nearly as dramatic as Johnson's in '60, but it could make a difference.
1) The South is Republican and getting more so. As Christian conservatives realize that the Republican Party is the party of traditional values while the Democrats are progressives, they abandon their generations-old allegiance to the Democrats. While Edwards does not represent these views, he at least comes across as a Southerner.
2) But it doesn't appear many Southern states are within striking distance for Kerry. If Edwards is to make an impact, it will be slight and in select locations.
3) Below is a partial breakdown of the southern political picture for 2004 including where and how Edwards could make a difference in key Southern states.
Alabama:
Bush will easily carry Alabama, where Democrats haven't gotten 45% in decades. Sen. Richard Shelby (R.), likewise, will coast to reelection.
If Gore and Clinton couldn't come close, Kerry-Edwards doesn't stand a chance. A poll two weeks back showed Bush up 14 points. The only contested race here in 2004 will be the reelection bid of freshman Rep. Mike Rogers (R.) who won by less than 1% of the vote two years ago. Rogers' $1.5-million raise by mid-May (while Fuller was in five figures) should make Rogers safe for a second term.
Arkansas:
Besides Florida (which is only partly Southern), Arkansas is the only Southern state truly in play in the presidential election.
While much of the country sees a rebound in employment, Arkansas lags behind. If Edwards visits the state, together with former President and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton (D.) (whom Gore barred from the campaign trail for most of the race), he could win over some unhappy voters.
Also, Arkansas, like the poorer parts of all the southern states, lags behind the rest of Dixie in coming around the GOP fold. Throughout history, Arkansas has had a populist streak, and the poverty here makes Edwards' "Two Americas" rhetoric more resonant.
One poll last month showed Kerry slightly ahead here, but the tendency is towards a moderate Bush lead. If Bush had any hopes of removing Arkansas and its six electoral votes from the battleground, Edwards has erased them.
Florida:
Again, Florida is only truly southern in the northern parts of the state. Otherwise, it resembles New York more than North Carolina.
Since only a small part of Florida is southern culturally, and Edwards will only sway a few of those voters, his impact here is minimal. Considering the closeness of Florida in 2000 and its 27 electoral votes, however, that tiny difference could be everything.
For those white conservative Christians in the Panhandle who voted Democrat their whole life until recently, Edwards could make it easier for them to come back home to their ancestral party, without feeling as much like they are backing the Northeastern elites' party.
If just a few of those voters come back to the Democrats, then Edwards will have swung this race to Kerry. Of course, Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.) or Sen. Bill Nelson (Fla.) would have been better at winning votes in Fla., but Kerry might have some small impact.
Edwards' presence is already felt in the Republican backrooms, as the tension manifests itself between the GOP's planned attack on Edwards' trial lawyer baggage and the resume of trial lawyer (and former housing Secretary) Mel Martinez (R.), one of the top GOP candidates for Senate. Can the Bush campaign go after Edwards as an ambulance chaser when Martinez, the White House's favorite, was the head of his state's trial lawyer association?
Georgia:
Kerry has no chance in the Peach State, but Edwards could make the loss a bit smaller, especially because voting GOP is a very new thing for Southern conservatives, and it won't be hard for them to switch back.
More important to the party than the votes Edwards might win, is the help Edwards gives to rural white Democrats who get some flak from their constituents for backing Kerry while Sen. Zell Miller (D.) is bashing him. Edwards, across the South, may help hold together some state parties that are on the verge of falling apart.
With a few potentially close House races on the docket this fall, that slight bump from Edwards could have a ripple effect on the contests. Most notably, Rep. Max Burns (D.) faces a tough reelection in a Democratic district comprised of urban and rural blacks as well as rural white Democrats.
Edwards could attract rural white Democrats who fled their party in 2002.
