Outlook:
Going into the Democratic National Convention in Boston starting July 26 when he expects a bump, Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) appears to have a small but definite lead over President George W. Bush. 1) The selection of Sen. John Edwards (D.-N.C.) for Vice President (see below) has given Kerry a 5-point bump-exactly what the selection of Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D.-Conn.) gave Al Gore in 2000. 2) We find the optimism on the side the Democrats. The Republicans are less defeatist or pessimistic than they are uneasy. They feel Bush is slightly behind right now and are not exactly sure the means of his taking the lead, except for reliance on Kerry's shortcomings as a candidate. 3) Among some Republican loyalists, there is a sense that Bush is on the defensive and Kerry on the offensive. That is usually the position of the incumbent against the challenger, but it is a problem nonetheless. Bush always seems to be answering some charge, most recently the Senate Intelligence Committee report. 4) Many Republicans complain that Bush is getting no help from the Republican-controlled Congress (see below). Instead of providing an engine for the campaign, the lawmakers seem an impediment to a positive campaign. 5) There is no serious seconding of the proposal by former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato (R-N.Y.) to dump Vice President Dick Cheney. Apart from lack of any evidence that Cheney is hurting the ticket, Bush likes him and, indeed, needs him. Edwards Pick:
For the first time in many cycles, the conventional wisdom proved correct, as Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate. The pick was a strong one, but it may make little or no difference. 1) The media tend to overplay the importance of the running mate. Voters vote for President, not for Vice President. In recent history, Lyndon B. Johnson (D) is the only running mate to have made a real difference in an election-winning Texas and strengthening the South for John F. Kennedy (D) in 1960. 2) The best thing Edwards can do for Kerry is to teach him some charisma. Having a charming running mate will help offset Kerry's grave, impersonal demeanor, but the real boon for Kerry would be if some of Edwards' personality could rub off on him. Currently, Kerry's overall unattractiveness could be fatal. 3) Edwards' Carolina pedigree helps create some appearance of balance on the ticket, with the Southern accent contrasting the Northeastern patrician Kerry. Besides those surface cultural differences and the stylistic contrasts, the two are more similar than different. Both are very rich Senators with liberal voting records (ranked 1st and 4th most liberal by National Journal). 4) Kennedy is the only Senator since Warren Harding to be elected to the White House. The biggest handicap for Senators is that they are forced to cast votes, and so they have long voting records that touch on many tough issues. Both Kerry and Edwards, for example, voted against the $87 billion in Iraq "post-war" money-votes that could hurt them (and that they now say they should be praised for). 5) Republicans are heightening their effort to force uncomfortable votes in the upper chamber for Kerry and Edwards. The first such vote will be on the constitutional amendment on homosexual marriage. Given Edwards' lead role in blocking Bush's judicial nominees, nothing could put the Judiciary Committee member's star Democratic attacker more on the spot that a high court vacancy and a conservative nominee. But such a scenario is not likely. 6) John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were the only 20th Century nominees who selected a former rival as a running mate. Such a gambit has downsides, and the Republican National Committee last week wasted no time in dragging up the nasty things Edwards and Kerry have said about one another. But for Reagan it paid off in bringing the moderate establishment wing of the GOP fully on board with his run. Edwards, however, does not really bring any big constituency with him in the way the other Democratic candidates would. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D.) had a young liberal base, Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.) had union support and Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) had a hawkish following. Edwards' following in the primaries, on the other hand, was not distinct from Kerry's. 7) Edwards does bring one small, but wealthy constituency to the ticket: trial lawyers. Edwards has thrived on trial lawyer money for all of his brief political career, and his network of donors will prove invaluable to the ticket and to the party. 8) Besides the cash, Edwards' largest effects, of course, will be in the South.
