Iraq Handover:
The surprise transfer of sovereignty, two days ahead of schedule, could be a major political event. It will take a few days before it is determined how much impact it has on the polls, but it is a dramatic change in the political climate. 1) This was a genuinely well-kept secret that did not leak. Affecting the handover without publicity prevented the insurgents from disrupting the process. For once, the occupying forces were ahead of the terrorists. 2) That has left Democrats at least temporarily in a difficult position. Some critics are saying that performing this important transfer of sovereignty in the dead of the night was a sign of desperation. But that makes these critics look small-minded. 3) Sen. Joseph Biden (D.-Del.), ranking minority member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, returned from his latest trip to Iraq reflecting a new positive public mood there in anticipation of the handover. Coming from such an influential critic of U.S. policy as Biden, that is a major assessment. 4) The big question is being put by Sen. John Warner (R.-Va.): Will the Iraqi security forces be able to at least make a contribution in the field? That is tied to a gradual transfer of policing responsibilities away from the Americans. Although U.S. troops will be in Iraq for years to come, it is critical for President George W. Bush's election prospects to sharply reduce the casualty numbers for U.S. troops. In fact, although it has not been given much publicity, the death toll of American soldiers is way down. Outlook:
With 18 weeks to go before the election, no predictions are safe. It cannot even be said for sure that the election is safe. 1) The month of June was viewed some Bush supporters as a time for firming up his foreign policy credentials, and to a certain extent it succeeded. The Reagan funeral was a weeklong distraction, but President Bush was able to achieve most of his goals. 2) Nevertheless, there is strong unease in Republican ranks about the Bush presidency. One of the President's most staunch congressional supporters told him last week he must make a more convincing case to the nation that he is an effective steward of the country. In other words, he cannot get by strictly by being the "war president." 3) A key to Republican unease is Ohio. We have been told by prominent Ohio Republicans that voters there do not consider the economy to be in recovery. It now looks as though in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, Bush must win two-out-of three to be elected. 4) The biggest surprise has been that with all the bad news for Bush, Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) is not in much better position. He has not yet properly introduced himself to the American people and sometimes comes across as a petty Senate politician-as when he complained last week that the Republican leadership did not schedule a vote for him on a one-day cameo appearance in the Senate campaign off the campaign trail. 5) Both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the Democratic National Convention in Boston is essential for Kerry's chances. He must introduce himself to the country, especially to the undecided voters in swing states-perhaps no more than 3% of the total electorate. Bill Clinton invigorated his 1992 campaign with convention performance in New York. 6) A major boost for Bush was the endorsement of Sen. John McCain (R.-Ariz.), who also was announced as a major convention speaker. The idea of McCain as Kerry's running mate always was fanciful, but it is very important for Bush's chances of getting the swing vote that he be on board. Georgia Senator:
The nomination of Rep. Johnny Isakson (R.) is no longer a sure thing. The moderate congressman still leads in all polls and in the cash race, but the runoff system could give one of the conservatives an edge in the end. Rep. Mac Collins and pizza magnate Herman Cain (R.) are both trying to make late moves for the July 20 primary. Cain is a more energetic campaigner and could possibly assemble a majority coalition in a runoff. Leaning Isakson. Illinois Senator:
The publication of Jack Ryan's (R.) child custody papers sunk his insurgent campaign, and now the Illinois GOP is charged with finding a replacement this summer. This is good news for State Sen. Barack Obama (D.). After Republicans had a hard enough time finding Ryan, they now need to dig even deeper. It could get ugly. Unless a surprise candidate enters now, Obama will be a senator, and the Illinois GOP will be even more shattered. Likely Democratic Takeover.
