Outlook:
Nothing very good has happened to President Bush over the last two weeks, and the Republicans worry that Kerry will not permanently be unable to pull his act together.
1) The sharp drop in Bush's poll ratings can be primarily traced to Iraq. The President's campaign tacticians cannot even plot a plan of operation because (in the words of one campaign aide) "Iraq takes all the oxygen."
2) There is not much doubt that Kerry has not been much of a candidate so far. The only thing that is keeping the Democratic troops loyal is their commitment to get rid of Bush. They also are reminded how bad Kerry looked early in his 1996 Senate pre-election campaign but then rallied near the end, in time to win.
3) Just how much slack Kerry is being cut was shown when he blundered into appearing to say he would nominate some pro-life federal judges and was not condemned by the pro-choice forces. However, about half of the likely base of Democratic voters are closer to Ralph Nader on the war than they are to Kerry. While Iraq is a much bigger problem for Bush, it causes difficulties for Kerry.
4) Bush continues to have a problem with his base, mainly for reasons unrelated to Iraq. The education ("no child left behind") and, in particular, the prescription drug bills are very unpopular with a minority of Republican voters. In a close election where the bases must stand united, even a minority of Republican voters can be decisive.
5) There is a clear split among Republicans even though all agree it is necessary to display an ideological contrast to Kerry. The decision of the Bush campaign to run "no child left behind" ads on television over the Memorial Day weekend horrified conservatives, who would like to forget that program.
Financing:
There is general agreement that Democrats have stolen a march on the Republicans on soft money financing through the "527" committees. Party leaders around the country are very upset by the decision by the Republican high command to try to fight the 527s by appealing to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). This was the outcome:
1) Now that the Republicans have lost their case at the FEC, they are far behind in raising soft money and there seems no way they can catch up.
2) The Republicans have gained no credit and the Democrats have lost nothing in this role reversal in regard to campaign finance reform. This is not a grass roots issue and is important only for the money that is raised or not raised.
3) The worst part is that any realist should have known the FEC never would have come out against the 527s.
4) The Republican realization that they know now they have to get back in the 527 race was shown when House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.) was scheduled to address a leading Republican 527 run by a former aide to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.).
Abortion:
Pro-life Republicans, coming off of the passage of the Partial Birth Abortion Ban, are gearing up for the next fight in the abortion war.
1) Sen. Sam Brownback (R.-Kan.) and Rep. Chris Smith (R.-N.J.) are sponsoring the Unborn Child Pain Awareness Act, which would require abortion doctors to inform mothers that the unborn child feels pain. It would also require the abortionist to give the woman a choice of whether to anaesthetize the fetus.
2) Backers in neither chamber are confident about a vote before the election, but they hope to have hearings, in the Health subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and in the Senate's Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
3) Like the Partial Birth ban, this bill has a high rhetorical value for pro-lifers. The public debate of the bill and media coverage will spread the information that fetuses feel pain during an abortion. The Partial Birth ban gave abortion opponents a chance to highlight the gruesome process of some abortions.
4) Unlike the PBA ban, this bill could have the effect of curbing abortion by discouraging mothers considering the procedure.
5) This will not be an easy vote for Democrats. Unlike other abortion bills, such as the "Born-Alive Infants Protection Act," which required care for children who survive abortions, pro-choice Democrats cannot back this without enraging the pro-choice groups such as NARAL and Planned Parenthood.
South Dakota-At Large:
In their second victory in as many special elections this year, Democrats gained a House seat last night. In a narrower-than-expected 51-to-49% win, 2002 House loser Stephanie Herseth (D.) knocked off State Sen. Larry Diedrich (R.).
