Electoral College:
Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) makes huge gains, moving ahead in polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania among others. Troubles in Iraq have spelled a bad month for President George W. Bush, and it has finally caught up with him. If the election were held today, Kerry would win big. KERRY 325, BUSH 213.
Arkansas (6): For the first time, Bush has dropped well below 50%, and was tied with Kerry in two recent polls. If the election were held today, Arkansas would be a rare Southern state voting Democratic. Leaning Kerry.
Florida (27): A poll by liberal group Americans Coming Together showed Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s recent momentum continuing, and the challenger taking a large lead in the Sunshine State.
While the poll is not unbiased, it matches other recent surveys that show Bush around 47%. So far, Florida has been behaving like the swing state it was in 2000. As of today, it has swung to Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s column. Leaning Kerry.
Illinois (21): A Rasmussen Poll last week has Bush climbing steadily while Kerry hovers just below 50%. This is still a strong Democratic state, but the numbers show it may be in play, despite reports that the Bush campaign was giving up on it. Leaning Kerry.
Michigan (17): Michigan, like Illinois has taken a turn towards Bush. The Wolverine State, however, has gone a step further and would give its votes to the President were the election held today.
The latest poll shows Bush ahead 44% to 40%. That??¢â???¬â???¢s a low reelect number for Bush, but the 40% represents a serious drop for Kerry - meaning he is losing support here as he becomes more well known. Leaning Bush.
New Hampshire (4): Kerry has surged in his backyard, and would bring New Hampshire back into the Democratic column if the election were today. Of all the states that have swung Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s way, New Hampshire may be the most steady. Leaning Kerry.
Ohio (20): An American Research Group poll last week shows Kerry at an amazing 50%, with Bush down at 44%. This is a huge swing in a state central to the election. Bush simply cannot win without a strong showing in the Midwest and almost certainly needs Ohio.
Since September, no polls here have shown Bush ahead of Kerry by any significant amount. The trouble here has to be of utmost concern to the President and his campaign. Leaning Kerry.
Pennsylvania (21): Like Ohio, Pennsylvania today would vote for Kerry. Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s 49-to-43 lead comes from a Democratic poll. It is also the first poll after Bush secured the re-nomination of liberal Sen. Arlen Specter (R.-Pa.), a move that angered conservatives but that Bush hopes will woo moderate voters. Leaning Kerry.
