Outlook:
President George W. Bush (R) maintains a narrow lead, in both electoral and popular votes, over Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.). However, the events transpiring between now and the election will exert massive influence over the outcome of the election, with the outcome between two troubled candidates impossible to foresee.
1) President Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s greatest asset continues to be public confidence in his conduct of the war against terrorism despite the spate of books questioning his leadership. He appears to have dodged the twin bullets of Bob Woodward??¢â???¬â???¢s new book and the independent 9/11 commission. After first resisting an appearance, he managed to get the upper hand over the commission with his closed-door, joint appearance with Vice President Dick Cheney.
2) On the other hand, public confidence in Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s conduct of the Iraq war and, indeed, in the war itself, is on the wane. With surprising unanimity, politicians of both parties believe the outcome in Iraq will determine the election. If the bloodshed and confusion of April were to continue for long, Bush would be in trouble. His supporters hope that the handover of sovereignty in June will mark a turning point.
3) The economy, Democrats privately admit, is declining as a major campaign issue. That poses a very serious campaign problem for Kerry. His and other Democratic primary campaigns had concentrated on job loss, unfair taxation and declining stock values.
4) Bush is not the deftest political operative, but he may be more attractive than Kerry. If the events of April ran against Bush, the month reduced Democratic confidence in Kerry. He has been as unimpressive lately as he was when he fell far behind in the race for the Democratic nomination. The clich???? © heard among prominent Democrats is that Bush has to lose the election because Kerry cannot win it.
5) Kerry clearly has moved toward the center and done so more quickly than anybody guessed. His alternative programs on Iraq and the economy are different in degree from Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s rather than in kind. The danger for Kerry is that this course may drive the supporters of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D.) into the arms of Ralph Nader (Independent).
Senate:
The nerve-wracking renomination of four-term Sen. Arlen Specter (R.) over conservative Rep. Pat Toomey (R.) continues to have reverberations throughout Washington and Pennsylvania.
1) As we mentioned in our e-mail alert last Wednesday, Toomey would have won had it not been for the avid campaigning for Specter by President Bush and Sen. Rick Santorum (R.). In fact, exit interviews and final tallies suggest Toomey would have won big.
2) This has hurt Santorum with conservatives, his ideological base. Before the primary, Santorum was already beginning to alienate his backers. Santorum??¢â???¬â???¢s last-minute fly-around and the closeness of the contest has generated some real ill-will. At a Catholic gathering in D.C. on the day after the primary, Santorum was greeted coolly. In his home state, he has been booed.
3) Toomey, however, has lined up firmly behind Specter in his race against Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D.), as has the Club For Growth, Toomey??¢â???¬â???¢s single biggest backer. Many Pennsylvania pro-lifers and conservatives, however, are having crises of conscience. Anger at the GOP establishment and fear of Judiciary Chairman Specter has led to open discussions of pro-lifers??¢â???¬â???¢ supporting Hoeffel.
4) Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer may draw serious attention from disaffected conservatives and erstwhile Toomey backers. Again, the idea of Specter piloting the judicial confirmation battle fuels the effort to get rid of the senior senator, perhaps by siphoning off votes.
5) Specter on the ballot in November could help or hurt Bush. The Bush team hopes Specter will help Bush win over the moderate suburban Republicans in Montgomery and Bucks County near Philadelphia. But Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s treatment of Toomey may make disaffected conservatives, many of whom are registered Democrats in rural counties, stay home on Election Day.
6) Specter threw salt on the wounds of Beltway and Pennsylvania conservatives when, 12 hours after Toomey??¢â???¬â???¢s concession speech, Specter gave a press conference highlighting his differences with the White House. He called for tax hikes, funding of stem-cells and abortion rights. The White House shrugged this off as Specter??¢â???¬â???¢s ??¢â???¬?????independence.??¢â???¬
Electoral College:
As Kerry stumbles while Bush is battered by bad news, the only general trend of the state-by-state polling is a tightening. Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s leads are shrinking as are Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s.
It would not be surprising to see Wisconsin, Oregon and Minnesota switch to the Bush column, offsetting the Kerry pickups of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. However, if the election were held today, the state-by-state breakdown would be the same as it was in our last report. Bush 274, Kerry 264.
