Outlook:
Given the waves of criticism in the news media of President George W. Bush, it is remarkable that the popular vote polls show he is still in a virtual dead heat with Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.). That suggests
a) that there remains a deep-seated base of support for Bush and
b) that Kerry has yet to favorably present himself to the public.
Electoral College:
Despite two more weeks of bad news for Bush (interrupted by good employment data), the Electoral College picture remains the same. Bush 274, Kerry 264.
Bush:
The torrent of bad news has left Bush supporters shaky and Kerry backers elated.
1) The last straw for Bush backers was how the news media have treated Bob Woodward??¢â???¬â???¢s new book. Bush is simultaneously depicted as both feckless and overly aggressive, under the grip of Vice President Dick Cheney and at the same time determined to go to war. The book actually is much more even-handed with many favorable depictions of Bush, but that is not the impression given by media coverage.
2) Publication of Woodward??¢â???¬â???¢s book follows Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s third primetime news conference. Since the Bush team does not like such events, this was scheduled in an emergency mode to prevent Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s base from falling away. Despite negative reviews, it succeeded in showing Bush determined to stay the course even if his performance was not a work of art.
3) The Woodward book, oddly, is exercising more clout than the 9/11 commission, whose partisan squabbling has undermined its impact. The Democratic members of the commission (with the exception of former Rep. Lee Hamilton [D.-Ind.], the vice-chairman) are more partisan than the Republicans. But these Democrats, particularly Washington lawyer Richard Ben-Veniste, have overplayed their hand.
4) Republican strategists feel the White House needs to change the subject from what Bush did in the past to what he is doing now. That will be difficult in view of Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s determination to campaign as the ??¢â???¬?????war President,??¢â???¬ which invites an assessment of how he went to war.
5) Published reports that the Bush campaign is out of money simply are not true. The cutback in television ads over the last few weeks was caused by the belief that the regular news - especially the 9/11 commission - would dominate the front pages, and it was best to pull back.
Kerry:
The Democratic nominee??¢â???¬â???¢s failure to take advantage of the bad news for Bush suggests either that a) he is a very tough sell or b) no real attempt has been made to sell him.
1) The feeling inside the Democratic Party takes the latter position, and there is good reason for that. The Kerry team says it is about to launch positive television ads ??¢â???¬?????introducing??¢â???¬ Kerry to the American electorate. The reason that was not done right after the nomination was clinched appears to be lack of funds and lack of organization.
2) Kerry??¢â???¬â???¢s ??¢â???¬?????Meet the Press??¢â???¬ performance, his first full-length televised interview since clinching the nomination, was given a ??¢â???¬?????B-minus??¢â???¬ by Democrats we talked to. The overall perception was that he was considerably more adept and a more skilled performer than Bush, but less likable. He was pretty well schooled in handling touchy questions, but not inspirational.
3) As might have been expected, Kerry is moving to the right - from dismissing his youthful anti-war activism to suggesting that ??¢â???¬?????middle-class??¢â???¬ tax cuts are needed. Kerry is not Howard Dean, and will not descend into that pit.
4) The repetitive Bush-bashing by Kerry, on the stump and in the ??¢â???¬?????Meet the Press??¢â???¬ interview, gives a negative tone to the campaign. It is justified by the theory that a President seeking re-election is always the center of that campaign. Nevertheless, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton - the last two challengers to defeat an incumbent - were much less obsessive in attacking the incumbent than Kerry has been so far.
Colorado:
Beer company CEO Peter Coors (R.) has mixed up the Colorado Senate race with his entrance.
Coors steals center stage from former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R.) - a hero to conservatives, but less than a compelling politician. Coors??¢â???¬â???¢ entrance is just the latest twist in the political chaos that developed when Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R.) announced he would not seek another term.
Coors right away has received attacks upon his company??¢â???¬â???¢s advertising, which has been accused of appealing to children and objectifying women. Also, conservatives are displeased with the apparent revocation of GOP establishment backing of Schaffer. Meanwhile, the candidacy of Atty. Gen. Ken Salazar (D.) continues along at a good pace. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
