Electoral College:
The latest polls show Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire swinging into President Bush’s column, a massive 104-vote electoral swing, enough to tip the scale back to Bush’s favor. 1) Besides Minnesota and Iowa, where Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) has made gains, the momentum is clearly in Bush’s favor. Kerry may be at the beginning of a steady decline. All of the polls covered in this report were conducted right around the time of the harsh testimony from former intelligence officer Richard Clarke to the 9/11 Commission, and long before the positive jobs figures came out. 2) If Kerry cannot turn bad news into gain, he may be in trouble as the economy continues to climb over the next seven months. Also, as Kerry’s record comes out, he may find more states following Florida and Pennsylvania into the Bush column. 3) If the election were held, Pennsylvania and Florida would propel Bush to victory. Bush 274, Kerry 264. 9/11 Commission:
With National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice testifying last week, Democrats may start regretting what they’ve wished for. 1) The commission charged with investigating intelligence failures leading up to the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to be helplessly overrun by election-year politics. In the political wrangling, however, Bush may have gained the upper hand. 2) The ongoing uproar about whether Rice would testify publicly has had far more to do with political maneuvering than information gathering. Democratic commission members had been calling on Rice to testify publicly, before television cameras and under oath. 3) Rice had already testified, but behind closed doors. The demand that she testify publicly was made as a political maneuver to make it appear that the Bush White House was covering something up. Democrats did not expect Bush would actually agree to have his advisor go public. 4) The decision to allow Rice to testify was, in turn, a political one, as well. Rice is a very eloquent and intelligent woman. While her public testimony may do little to advance the commission’s inquiry, it will benefit Bush politically. 5) As a prominent black woman in a position of grave importance, Rice provides good public relations with black voters. Also, the move allows Bush to respond to attacks by his Democrats on his security record by saying that Rice addressed all criticism in the public hearings. 6) Rice will have an opportunity to rebut claims by her former National Security Council colleague Richard Clarke, who last month made headlines with his book and his public testimony arguing the Bush White House never made terrorism a high priority, and that Rice was unfamiliar with al Qaeda. 7) The hope of an independent, honest inquiry, free of politics, is gone. Georgia Republican:
As it has been since the beginning, the battle here is currently for second place, and the right to go one-on-one with Rep. Johnny Isakson (R.) in an August runoff. 1) The two conservatives vying for the runner-up spot are Rep. Mac Collins (R.) and pizza magnate Herman Cain (R.). If no candidate garners a majority in the July 20 primary, the top two finishers head to a runoff three weeks later. 2) Isakson, who has run statewide before, starts with a sizable base, but also high negatives. A moderate, Isakson lacks support from the party’s conservative base. With Isakson’s high name ID from past runs suggests that undecideds are making up their minds between Cain and Collins. 3) Collins, with a conservative voting record and roots in D.C. and Augusta, has a decent base of support, which has allowed him to raise good money. However, his campaign strategies and stump speech are more fit for a sheriff’s race or congressional campaign than a U.S. Senate contest. Collins’ slow, down-home tone is bleeding him support. 4) Cain is on the upswing, though slowly. Spending his own cash, the African-American is generating some enthusiasm on the right. With no black Republicans in Congress, Cain is easily the best prospect for adding some color to the conference. Also, if Rep. Pat Toomey (R.) beats Sen. Arlen Specter (R.) in the Pennsylvania GOP primary this month, national conservatives will be energized to make some right-wing inroads into the upper chamber. 5) Isakson’s money and big-business connections in Atlanta make him almost impossible to beat in the primary. Cain or Collins needs to hope he can hold Isakson under 50% to force the runoff. In a runoff, with heightened national attention, the challenger could overcome the favorite. 6) Cain, however, cannot count on the black vote in the open primary because Rep. Denise Majette (D.-Ga.) will draw them to the Democratic ballot. Those who vote Democrat in the primary cannot vote in a Republican runoff. 7) As it looks now, Isakson would finish first in the low forties, while Cain would come in second and go to a runoff. Leaning Isakson
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